A real-world oil tanker simulation
Arrow Keys / WASD to steer & throttle · B to toggle AIS transponder
Sail east to load 2 million barrels of oil in the Gulf of Oman, then return west to deliver it. Profit = oil price × barrels, minus tolls, war-risk insurance, or repairs.
Every time the game loads, it fetches two real-world data points:
Strait status — pulled from hormuzstraitmonitor.com, a live dashboard tracking the Vermouth shipping crisis. If the site reports the strait as open, the game runs in ceasefire mode — Navy ships escort rather than attack, passage is mostly toll-free, only a few residual mines remain from the unfinished demining effort, and rare evacuation-straggler convoys cross the channel. If closed, the full wartime arsenal activates: sea mines, kamikaze drones, mobile missile batteries, a hostile US Navy blockade, and $2M toll demands. Iran re-declared the strait closed on Jun 20 over alleged ceasefire violations, and on Jun 25 the IRGC enforced "Tehran-only" transit corridors and a vessel took an unidentified hit off Oman. On Jun 26 Iran fired drones directly at transiting ships for the first time since the ceasefire — hitting one cargo vessel's bridge — prompting US retaliatory strikes on Iranian missile and drone sites. On Jun 27 a second drone hit the tanker Kiku on the Navy's own newly-widened "safe" Omani corridor, triggering a second night of US strikes and Iranian missile/drone reprisals on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait — Iran now calls the strikes a ceasefire violation and is threatening to halt diplomacy altogether. Washington disputes the closure and says ships keep moving, so treat either reading as contested, not settled. A fresh truce on Jun 29 halted the tit-for-tat strikes, and JMIC downgraded its threat assessment from SEVERE to SUBSTANTIAL — the first downgrade since the war began — as both sides headed toward technical talks in Doha on Jun 30. But Jun 30 itself brought confusion rather than resolution: envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner landed in Doha, yet Tehran says no direct meeting with Washington is actually scheduled — the envoys are reportedly there to see Qatari mediators only — and Iran is simultaneously reasserting that it alone has authority to regulate traffic through the strait, warning any further ceasefire violation will draw a "crushing response." Washington disputes that claim and insists freedom of navigation isn't Iran's to control. The standdown has held into a second day with no new strikes reported, and Jul 1–2 indirect talks in Doha between US and Iranian negotiators produced "positive progress" according to Qatar — VP Vance said talks were "going well." But Iran's joint military command simultaneously issued its most explicit enforcement warning since the ceasefire: all oil tankers must follow Tehran-designated routes through the strait or face an "immediate and firm response." Tehran insists no direct meeting with Washington is scheduled; the diplomatic track is moving but contested, not settled. On Jul 7, the IRGC escalated sharply — striking three vessels in 24 hours (Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat and Saudi VLCC Wedyan, among others) — restoring the JMIC threat level to SEVERE and triggering new US retaliatory strikes on Iran. In open/contested mode this means shorter gaps between drone strikes, three IRGC fast boats instead of two, and Saudi VLCC supertankers crossing alongside Qatari LNG tankers — both now active IRGC targets. On Jul 8 Washington hit back hard — 80+ Iranian military sites struck overnight — and the US Treasury revoked Iran's oil-sale waiver, reimposing sanctions. Traceable traffic on the US-coordinated Omani corridor then all but stopped, and at least two tankers are believed to have crossed with their AIS transponders switched off to dodge targeting — the game now lets you do the same (see AIS BLACKOUT). On Jul 11 the IRGC fired a cruise missile at the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy roughly 9nm east of Oman's Musandam Peninsula, gutting its engine room and sparking a fire that forced the crew to abandon ship — one crew member remains missing. Iran declared the strait closed "until further notice, and until regional interference by the US ceases," its most sweeping closure declaration of the war, and CENTCOM answered with a third round of strikes hitting roughly 140 targets around Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Minab. On Jul 12 Iran fired missiles and drones at Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait simultaneously — every GCC state but Saudi Arabia scrambled air defenses, with three people (including a child) hurt by shrapnel in Doha — and President Trump declared the ceasefire "over." On Jul 14, hours after the al-Bahiya/Mombasa strikes, the US reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports for the fourth time this war — 19+ warships including two carrier strike groups now patrol the northern Arabian Sea, escorting 3-4 commercial vessels a day. Trump simultaneously abandoned his proposed 20% "Reimbursement Fee" on Hormuz cargo — which the IMO had called illegal and the shipping industry opposed — in favor of trade and investment deals with Gulf states. On Jul 15 the IRGC struck US-linked military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and, for the first time this war, Jordan — Kuwait's air defenses intercepted 6 missiles and 33 drones, Jordan downed 3 incoming missiles — and Iran said more than 30 civilians have been killed in the latest round of US strikes. Tehran's Revolutionary Guard warned that if its own Hormuz shipping stays blockaded, "the region's oil and gas exports will either be available to everyone or to no one," a thinly veiled threat to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait via its Houthi allies in Yemen — opening a potential second front against a separate vital waterway. Trump warned it would "get really bad next week," threatening strikes on Iranian bridges and power plants if no deal is reached. On Jul 15-16 the US struck Iranian missile launch sites on Greater Tunb Island near the strait's Persian Gulf mouth, then disabled the Curaçao-flagged tanker M/T Belma with Hellfire missiles off Kharg Island — Iran's main export terminal — after it defied the reinstated blockade; two other vessels were turned back. Traceable transits collapsed to just 10 ships a day, 11% of the 88/day pre-crisis norm, as the crisis entered its 137th day, and India ordered shipowners to stop deploying Indian seafarers on Hormuz voyages "until further orders" after two Indian crew died in attacks within three days — echoing an earlier Philippine curb that Manila later eased. The UN's shipping agency warned the strait had become too dangerous for commercial vessels. On Jul 17, a sixth consecutive night of US strikes expanded beyond military and naval targets to Iranian infrastructure for the first time — six road bridges, the nuclear-plant town of Bushehr, and Lorestan province — fulfilling Trump's "get really bad next week" warning, while a separate wave hit Qeshm Island's Masan village and the port of Bandar Khamir, both near the strait's narrowest point, knocking out a second coastal missile battery. Qatar, the war's chief diplomatic mediator, came under Iranian fire for a second time, intercepting a fresh wave of attacks, and Iran claimed additional strikes on US forces in Bahrain and Syria. The IRGC repeated its threat that "not a single drop of oil or gas will be exported from the region" as long as US action continues, and analysts warned of a "forever war" with no off-ramp in sight as the crisis entered its 138th day. On Jul 18, CENTCOM launched the war's largest single strike package yet — roughly 140 targets overnight — and Iran hit back at Jordan's Prince Hassan Air Base (Amman disputes the claim, saying it intercepted four missiles) and a second power and water plant in Kuwait. For the first time, Iran also moved directly against merchant shipping inside the strait itself: the IRGC announced a combined missile-and-drone operation that intercepted four commercial vessels for defying its shipping rules, declining to name them and warning owners against relying on "baseless" US military protection. The crisis entered its 139th day with no visible diplomatic track. On Jul 18, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, killing 2 US service members and leaving a third missing — the war's first confirmed US combat fatalities, bringing the American death toll to 16 — and Trump ordered an 8th consecutive night of retaliatory strikes, with officials signaling civilian energy infrastructure could be next. Iran responded by formally suspending every commitment under the Jun 17 MOU, its Supreme Leader dismissing Trump's signature on the deal as "worthless and unreliable" — so in the game, the HUD's toll-free countdown now reads SUSPENDED rather than counting down to Aug 16. Strait traffic fell to its lowest in three weeks, with 7 of the last 8 vessels reported transiting via Iran's own designated route rather than the US-backed Omani corridor, as the crisis entered its 140th day. A US service member was killed in Iraq on Jul 18-19 during a controlled detonation of an unexploded Iranian one-way attack drone — pushing the American combat toll to 17 — and CENTCOM launched a 9th consecutive night of strikes as Jordan's air defenses intercepted several more incoming Iranian missiles. On Jul 20 the IRGC said 4 tankers attempted a dark "dangerous route" transit near the Musandam Peninsula and 2 "had accidents and stopped" after apparently striking mines; Bloomberg tracked the products tanker Kavomaleas anchored empty off Musandam after running dark, and observable strait traffic nearly halted entirely that Monday morning as the crisis entered its 141st day. On Jul 21 CENTCOM launched a 10th consecutive night of strikes after Iran hit Kuwaiti energy infrastructure for a third time this war — Kuwait Petroleum Corp reported injuries and "significant material losses" at one of its facilities — while the IRGC separately claimed two more oil tankers caught "massive fires" after taking an "unsafe" route through the strait, a claim CENTCOM dismissed as false. Lloyd's List Intelligence recorded just 53 transits in the week through Jul 20, down 66% from 157 the week before, with tanker and gas-carrier crossings falling to 30 from 90 — the worst weekly total since the war resumed, as the crisis entered its 142nd day. Overnight into Jul 22, CENTCOM completed an 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran while the IRGC hit the Kuwaiti-flagged tanker Kaifan roughly 8nm off Oman's Limah, an engine-room fire forcing the crew into a lifeboat with no reported injuries. The Houthis then declared a formal blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb strait — Saudi Arabia's main workaround export route since Hormuz traffic collapsed — and outside shipping trackers put the falloff in Hormuz transits near 90%, even as CENTCOM continues to insist the waterway is open, as the crisis entered its 143rd day. Later on Jul 22, Trump vowed the US would "destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT" — including targets near Tehran — every time Iran fires on a ship in the strait, and Iran's military told Tasnim it would retaliate against regional US-linked infrastructure in kind, as CENTCOM ran a 12th consecutive night of strikes and the IRGC claimed an unconfirmed tanker fire in the waterway. On Jul 23, three tankers were struck within 24 hours in the strait's southern corridor near Kumzar and Limah, Oman; traffic swung almost entirely to the northern, Iran-designated route, with just 2 of the next 12 verified crossings using the southern lane, and one struck tanker was later tracked moving under apparent armed escort toward Iranian waters. The Houthis also claimed strikes on the Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla in the Red Sea — a third maritime front alongside Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb — as the crisis entered its 144th day. Overnight into Jul 24, CENTCOM completed a 13th consecutive night of strikes, and later that day explosive-laden drones swarmed Irbil, the northern Iraqi city hosting US forces — air defenses shot down five over the city as sirens also sounded in Bahrain, with no casualties reported — while an Omani delegation flew to Tehran to discuss managing strait traffic, and CENTCOM publicly rejected Iran's claim to control the waterway as "false," as the crisis entered its 145th day. CENTCOM then went quiet — no new strikes announced Jul 25 or Jul 26, the first pause after 13 consecutive nights — with a Pentagon source calling operations "on a hold" as VP Vance and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine raised escalation and munitions-stockpile concerns in a White House meeting; separately, the IRGC claimed (disputed by US officials, who say all American aircraft are accounted for) to have destroyed 11 US aircraft and 17 drones since Jul 8, while Oman and Iran called their Hormuz-management talks "useful" and reported progress on safe-passage principles — though Tehran says actual transit conditions haven't changed yet, as the crisis entered its 147th day. The pause held into a third day on Jul 27 — CBS reported talks "moving in a positive direction" and CNBC said both sides paused fighting to give negotiations "space" — but Iran said Monday it is not seeking renewed talks with Washington and still insists it alone controls the strait, a mixed signal with no confirmed change in actual transit conditions, which TankerMap put at just 1-2 tanker crossings a day. Iran also opened a fourth front on Jul 27: Foreign Minister Araghchi warned Ukraine that a Saturday Caspian Sea strike which killed one Iranian sailor "cannot go unanswered," accusing Kyiv of acting at Israel's behest — a claim Kyiv frames instead as a strike on Russian military-linked shipping. The CENTCOM strike pause extended into a fourth day on Jul 28, and Iran widened its diplomatic track beyond Oman — hosting a separate round of Hormuz-management calls with Saudi Arabia, reportedly seeking Gulf buy-in for a framework to restart full shipping traffic through the strait. But the same obstacles remain: the central shipping lane can't reopen until Iran's naval mines are cleared, and Tehran is still seeking Omani sign-off on a toll-based management scheme Muscat continues to reject, so nothing about actual transit conditions has changed yet. That changed sharply on Jul 28-29: Iran fired ballistic missiles at the same Jordan base hit Jul 18 — every missile intercepted, no US casualties — ending the CENTCOM strike pause after 4 quiet nights, and CENTCOM and Saudi forces struck back at Iran-aligned sites in eastern Iraq. The IRGC separately said it hit and stopped three more tankers running the strait's southern route in defiance of its warnings, so the game keeps the closed-strait arsenal at full strength. On Jul 29, US Treasury sanctioned Iran's Hormuz "extortion network" — the Persian Gulf Marine Insurance Co. and the Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority, IRGC-linked outfits Iran set up after declaring the strait closed, requiring tankers to pay both to "ensure safe travel" (Hormuz Safe even accepts bitcoin to dodge sanctions) — the clearest confirmation yet that the game's toll-demand mechanic mirrors a real, now-sanctioned extortion racket. CENTCOM separately said its blockade has redirected 20 commercial vessels for evasion, up from 12 just three days earlier. On Jul 30, Oman handed Iran a Gulf-backed proposal to jointly manage the strait with voluntary fees modeled on the Strait of Malacca — funding navigation, environmental and search-and-rescue services rather than a mandatory Iranian toll — though Tehran has not yet responded, and Bloomberg/Rigzone reported Hormuz traffic quietly picking up: 14 vessels crossed Jul 29 per Kpler (up from single digits the week before), a Qatari LNG carrier openly transited for the first time in three weeks, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright said roughly 6.5 million barrels a day exited the Gulf via the strait over the past week. That answer came fast: late Jul 29 into Jul 30, Iran formally ruled out Oman's plan, with a senior official insisting the entire inbound lane and part of the outbound lane must stay under Iranian control and calling a 50-50 joint-management split contrary to Tehran's interests — closing the clearest diplomatic opening since the ceasefire frayed. Hours later CENTCOM said it had completed a "heavy wave of strikes" against dozens of IRGC targets across southern Iran, ending a five-night pause; the strike killed a family of three — a father, mother and their two-year-old son — in a residential building in Qeshm City, with two more children pulled from the rubble. The IRGC vowed to "punish the aggressor today," reasserted that Iran alone controls the strait, and warned that countries "aiding" the US would face a "harsh response" of their own. On Jul 31 the IRGC said it struck and disabled two more tankers attempting an "unauthorized route" it said the US military had misled them into, turning back four others, while UKMTO confirmed a separate vessel was hit by an unidentified projectile in the southern strait and abandoned to lifeboats — even as CBA estimated Hormuz crude flows have quietly recovered to roughly 30-35% of pre-war levels despite it all. On Jul 31 Iran's Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi called Tehran's counter-proposal to Oman — routing one shipping lane and part of another entirely through Iranian waters — the country's "definitive position," warning the strait stays closed if Muscat won't accept it; Oman is reportedly now weighing a three-lane compromise instead, splitting traffic across an Iranian-waters lane, an international lane, and an Omani-waters lane. Kpler ship-tracking data showed two VLCCs still successfully exiting the Gulf that same day even as the IRGC stopped two tankers and turned four others away, so treat the strait as simultaneously closed on paper and porous in practice heading into Aug 1. A volatile Aug 1-2 weekend followed: Kuwait intercepted an Iranian drone attack on a government facility and Bubiyan Island vehicles, two tankers were struck off Oman near Musandam's Lima Point (including the dark-running Qatari LNG carrier Gaslog Shanghai), and Trump abruptly canceled a planned attack on Iran citing a "rough framework" deal to fully reopen the strait — but a source close to Iran's nuclear team told Fars News no such agreement exists, so the game keeps treating the strait as closed. Iran International → OilPrice.com → Axios → CNBC → CNN → Manila Times → Al Jazeera → Bloomberg → Axios (Jul 28) → Tasnim → US Treasury (Jul 29) → Times of Israel (Jul 28) → Bloomberg (Jul 30) → CNBC (Jul 30) → PressTV (Jul 30) → Business Standard → Tasnim (Jul 31) → CNBC (Jul 31) → Bloomberg (Kuwait, Aug 1) → Bloomberg (LNG tanker, Aug 1) → Axios (Aug 2) → Fars/Pravda (Aug 2) → On Aug 2-3, Trump set Monday talks with Iran while Tehran's Foreign Ministry said no US negotiations were actually scheduled — only an Oman-mediated "middle transit route" Araghchi called "nearing completion" — and Brent cratered 5.1% intraday on the mere prospect of a deal. On Aug 3-4, Trump branded Iran's leadership "unbelievably duplicitous" and called the Oman round Iran's "last chance," President Pezeshkian demanded Washington honor the Jun 17 MOU, and UKMTO logged a fresh attack ~20nm northeast of Al Khasab, Oman. Diplomacy then accelerated fast: Qatar said an interim Iran-Oman proposal was drafted under which inbound tankers would transit an Iran-controlled channel and outbound tankers an Oman-controlled channel, funded by a roughly $1M-per-ship "service fee" split evenly between Tehran and Muscat — though a US official insisted any such "temporary" route wouldn't involve Iranian permissions or tolls. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC a deal to reopen the strait could land "today or tomorrow," and Brent cratered 5.3% to a three-week-low $79.36 close on Aug 4, its first sub-$80 print since mid-July. But Reuters maritime sources confirmed that same day that the vessel UKMTO flagged near Al Khasab was a dry bulk ship whose crew abandoned it, with one seafarer still missing — no agreement has actually been signed and a tanker was just hit, so the game keeps treating the strait as closed. The National (Aug 4) → CNBC/Bessent (Aug 4) → Washington Post (Aug 4) → Rigzone (Aug 4) → Diplomacy then dragged through early-to-mid August without a signed deal — Iran and Oman circled a shipping-route framework while the sanctioned $2M wartime toll stayed the only "safe passage" on offer, and ADNOC-flagged tankers absorbed a steady drumbeat of drone and unknown-projectile strikes (17 hit since the war began by Aug 15). Trump escalated from pledging to eventually "declare" the strait US territory (Aug 14) to actually posting a map doing so (Aug 18). The Jun 17 MOU's 60-day toll-free window formally expired Aug 17 with no extension, Kpler logged traffic crashing to a three-month low (just 3 ships crossed Aug 16), and Iran's FM spokesman Baghaei said Tehran and Oman had agreed on the shipping-route map itself — though a joint implementation statement is still being finalized. On Aug 17, Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it "gets in the way" of reopening the strait and called on Iran to "put up the white flag of surrender." On Aug 18, UKMTO logged a fresh outbound vessel hit by an unknown projectile near Khasab, Oman — engine-room damage and a crew casualty, the worst single hit of the week — as Trump's territorial map post landed and Qatar said mediators are waiting on the Iran-Oman deal before resuming broader talks. No route deal is signed and no reopening is confirmed, so the game keeps treating the strait as closed. New as of Aug 19: Kpler ship-tracking data cited by Haaretz shows Iran has effectively lost operational control of its own chokepoint — over 80% of transits in the prior two weeks routed through Oman's UN-backed corridor rather than Iran's designated lane, leaving Tehran unable to collect the tolls it's demanded since the MOU lapsed. Bloomberg separately tracked two Chinese state-owned supertankers reversing course mid-transit rather than continue through the strait, and UANI's Aug 19 shipping update identified the previously-unnamed Aug 18 Khasab casualty as the vessel's chief engineer, who died of his injuries — the war's first confirmed fatality from a strike inside the strait itself. Bloomberg also tracked the tanker Amara making at least five erratic U-turns before coming to a dead stop near Iran's Qeshm Island on its way into the Gulf, a sign Tehran is still forcibly holding individual ships in place near its own coast even as the wider traffic pattern slips past it. No route deal is signed and Iran is still stopping ships by force near Qeshm, so the game keeps the strait's arsenal and toll mechanic exactly as they are. CBS News (Aug 17) → CGTN (Aug 17) → Arab News (Aug 18) → Al Jazeera (Aug 18) → Haaretz (Aug 19) → Bloomberg (Aug 19) → Bloomberg (Amara) → UANI (Aug 19) → Iran's IRGC confirmed Aug 20 what trackers had suspected for days: the tanker Amara wasn't merely being held near Qeshm, it had been formally seized — Tehran's first outright tanker seizure since June — with semi-official Fars News citing a transit-rule violation (no Iranian permit, no service fee paid) and state media saying the Liberia-flagged, UAE-linked vessel was redirected toward Bandar Abbas, even as other trackers still placed it holding off the Khasab approach in the North Hormuz corridor. The same day, US Treasury re-sanctioned Hezbollah as an Iran-run network, VP Vance called economic pressure Washington's "most effective tool" against Tehran, and Bessent teased a Monday announcement on "the toughest sanctions in history" — a parallel pressure track, not a strait mechanic. Lloyd's List/PortWatch logged just 73 transits for Aug 10-16, down from 91 the week before, and straits.live marked Day 173 of closure as of Aug 21. No route deal is signed and Iran just seized a tanker rather than releasing one, so the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait arsenal at full strength. Friday, Aug 21, Brent pulled back 0.3% to settle $93.40 (still a second straight weekly gain) as Bessent and Trump previewed Monday's "toughest sanctions in history" package targeting oil-smuggling networks, exchange houses, ship registries and front companies — but with nothing formally imposed yet and no fresh strike or seizure on the water, the game holds the closed-strait arsenal and insurance rate unchanged into the weekend. Middle East Eye (Aug 20) → Maritime Executive (Amara) → The Week → gCaptain (Bessent) → straits.live (Day 174) → Iran hardened its position over the weekend rather than soften it: SNSC secretary Rezaei declared the strait "closed, despite American claims" and said it "will not open until America corrects its behaviour," publishing a formal list of conditions — end the naval blockade, withdraw regional military assets, lift sanctions, unfreeze Iranian assets, compensate Iran for war damage — even as Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority granted transit permits to a batch of Iraqi tankers after Baghdad's repeated requests, with Rezaei warning that carve-out closes again too if any neighboring state joins Washington's sanctions campaign. On Aug 24 Iran's parliamentary national security committee approved Article 3 of a "Strategic Action Plan for Security and Development of the Strait of Hormuz," formally codifying Hormuz service fees — maritime, environmental, emergency fuel, insurance, safety — for ships from permitted countries, payable in rials or a Tehran-designated currency, pending a full floor vote. Hours later, ahead of Treasury Secretary Bessent's promised "economic D-Day" press conference on secondary sanctions targeting Iran's remaining oil buyers (China chief among them), the Persian Gulf Strait Authority escalated further still — blacklisting 45 tankers it says broke its transit rules and warning that any vessel transferring cargo with a blacklisted ship risks the same "fines, seizure, or confiscation." No route deal is signed and Iran is now threatening outright ship seizure rather than just tolls, so the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait arsenal at full strength. Al Jazeera (Aug 22) → IRNA (service fees, Aug 24) → CNBC (tanker blacklist, Aug 24) → CNN ("economic D-Day", Aug 23) → Overnight into Tuesday, Aug 25, an unidentified projectile struck the engine room of an unnamed tanker roughly nine nautical miles northeast of Ash Shishah, Oman, disabling it — UKMTO reported no casualties and did not disclose the vessel's flag, cargo, or attacker. Hours later Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, wrapped a one-day Tehran mission meeting President Pezeshkian, FM Araghchi, and chief negotiator Ghalibaf, with Islamabad claiming "significant progress" toward reopening the strait — but, echoing July's stalled Oman route-map talks, no signed deal or toll/ban terms followed. Bessent's sanctions package took formal effect the same day, and SNSC's Rezaei vowed to "neutralize" the economic pressure rather than negotiate under it. The new strike matches the engine-damage/no-casualties pattern already priced into the 15% ceiling and no route deal is on paper, so the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait arsenal at full strength; the default cargo price now tracks Monday's $92.06 Brent settle. TradeWinds (tanker hit, Aug 25) → Al Jazeera (Pakistan talks, Aug 25) → On Wednesday, Aug 26, Iran and Oman announced they'd agreed a temporary joint navigational corridor through the strait — inbound traffic routed entirely through Iranian waters, outbound through both Iranian and Omani waters — as a precursor to a permanent arrangement and a mine-clearing project. But Iran's deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi said immediately afterward that the strait "remains closed" until Washington honors the June ceasefire MOU, and no ships have actually moved on the new route yet. With no signed operational deal, no toll/ban terms set, and no ships transiting, the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait arsenal at full strength; the default cargo price now tracks that day's $85.85 Brent settle. Al Jazeera (Iran-Oman corridor, Aug 26) → Iran's IRGC-aligned hardliners followed up by saying Tehran and Oman have the corridor's terms agreed in principle but insisting the strait stays shut until Washington accepts Iran's conditions — casting the US, not Iran, as the holdout. Wednesday, Aug 26, Trump claimed the strait has been fully cleared of mines and is now a "functioning strait" with oil "pouring out" — a claim CENTCOM wouldn't corroborate, referring reporters to the White House instead. That claim met a fresh test Thursday, Aug 27: UKMTO reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile near Khasab, Oman, sparking a fire the crew extinguished with no casualties and no environmental damage. The same day, Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani flew to Tehran to press for freedom of navigation through the strait and a return to the pre-Feb 28 status quo. None of this is a signed deal or an eased threat picture, so the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait arsenal at full strength; the default cargo price now tracks Thursday's $86.93 Brent settle. CNBC (tanker strike tests demining claim, Aug 27) → Al-Monitor (Qatar PM to Tehran, Aug 27) → On Aug 28, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper announces US forces have cleared the strait's internationally recognized shipping lanes of Iranian sea mines after a monthslong operation using Navy divers, SEALs, and multi-service air assets — the third such demining claim since Aug 10, and again disputed within hours: Iran's deputy FM Gharibabadi calls it market-calming "propaganda" and asks why, if true, "not a single vessel" is passing through. With no independent verification and no confirmed change in traffic, the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait arsenal at full strength; the default cargo price now tracks Friday's $88.22 Brent settle. Arab News (CENTCOM demining claim, Aug 28) → Aug 29 brings no fresh strike or signed reopening deal — Iran's FM Araghchi says renewed talks with Washington aren't "impossible" if US pressure eases, even as Tehran urges other states to reject the sanctions, and CENTCOM's Cooper backs the demining claim with a figure of ~1,500 transits and ~750M barrels facilitated since the war began, still hard to square with Kpler's count of just five ships crossing this past Tuesday. straitClosed holds true and the default cargo price still tracks Friday's $88.22 print — markets are closed for the weekend. CNBC (Araghchi remarks, Aug 28) → Aug 30 brings the first direct US military action against Iran in over a month: US forces strike two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island that were preparing to fire rockets dispersing sea mines into the strait — a sharp rebuttal to CENTCOM's own week-old "fully demined" claim, since Iran was actively trying to re-seed the strait with mines even after the claimed minesweep. CENTCOM separately says zero Iranian crude exports have been tracked breaking its blockade, and Iran vows retaliation. Earlier that Saturday-into-Sunday, Iran's deputy FM Gharibabadi had said the strait "remains closed" and that any vessel passing through does so only in coordination with Tehran, confirming the Aug 26 Iran-Oman corridor understanding stays unimplemented until Washington meets its commitments under the lapsed Islamabad MOU. The Larak strike is a real event on the water, but not a hit on a vessel inside the strait itself — same treatment as the Jul 15/Aug 18-19 base strikes — so straitClosed holds true, mine density holds at its existing wartime seeding, and the default cargo price still tracks Friday's $88.22 print pending Monday's open. Press TV (Gharibabadi remarks, Aug 29) → CNBC (Larak Island strike, Aug 30) → Iran makes good on its vow on Aug 31: the IRGC fires ballistic missiles at two US military airbases in Jordan, claiming "heavy damage," and separately hits US military assets in the UAE — the first active exchange between Washington and Tehran since late July. Jordan's army says it intercepted eight missiles without confirming their origin. President Pezeshkian says Iran is "not looking for war" but "will never sit still in the face of any aggression." It's the sharpest confirmed military escalation since the Jul 29 Jordan-base exchange, but — like that strike and the Jul 15/Aug 18-19 base attacks before it — it's a hit on military targets, not a new tanker loss inside the strait, so the game holds the closed-strait insurance rate at its 15% ceiling and keeps straitClosed true. Brent opens the week up 2.93% to a $90.69 settle; the default cargo price now tracks that print. Euronews (Iran retaliates, Aug 31) → Al Jazeera (Jordan/UAE attacks, Aug 31) → Updated Sep 1: two supertankers — the Saudi-flagged VLCC Sidr and the Liberian-flagged Senegal Prosperity, both hauling 2M barrels of Saudi crude and both running AIS-dark — are struck by unknown projectiles in quick succession near Khasab; separately Iran's IRGC claims a supertanker hit two mines and caught fire, and that it shot down a US MQ-9 drone, but CENTCOM flatly denies the mine claim as "disinformation" and the drone claim is unconfirmed. No casualties, no independently confirmed mine strike, so the closed-strait insurance rate holds at its 15% ceiling and mine density holds unchanged. Trump vows to hit Iran "hard" while Tehran urges a return to the lapsed June 17 MOU; Brent climbs to a $91.28 settle. Bloomberg (tankers struck, Sep 1) → CNBC (Trump vows to hit Iran hard, Sep 1) → Tuesday, Sep 1 into Wednesday, Sep 2, brings the war's sharpest escalation since it began: CENTCOM completes a second wave of strikes on Iran in three days — air-defense sites, radar, naval assets, mine-laying capabilities, and communications sites along the southern coast — which Trump calls "large and powerful" retaliation for the failed Larak mine-laying bid and Sunday's Jordan missile attack. Iranian officials say one strike hit a home hosting a wedding in the coastal town of Kuhestak, killing five (including a child) and wounding at least 68, a claim Washington hasn't addressed. Iran answers with its broadest retaliation yet — IRGC missiles and drones hitting US-linked bases in Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, and Kuwait, double the two countries hit Aug 31 — with Jordan intercepting roughly ten ballistic missiles and Bahrain intercepting drones. Like every base-for-base exchange since Jul 15, none of it is a new tanker loss or mine strike inside the strait itself, so the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait insurance rate at its 15% ceiling; the default cargo price now tracks Wednesday's $94.86 Brent print, its highest since late July. Bloomberg (Iran's four-country retaliation, Sep 2) → NBC News (Trump: large and powerful strikes, Sep 1-2) → Updated Sep 3: Axios reports the Tuesday strike package included a new "tanker for tanker" policy Trump approved and deployed for the first time — US drones fired missiles into the engine rooms of two Iranian GOVERNMENT tankers anchored north of the blockade line, retaliation-in-kind rather than blockade enforcement, alongside roughly 100 IRGC-linked targets struck in total. A US official calls it "mowing the lawn" and claims it "bought at least a month" of reduced threat to commercial ships — unconfirmed by any traffic or mine data yet, so nothing eases in-game on the strength of it alone. The Washington Post separately puts Iran's overnight retaliation at 59+ missiles and drones, spread across Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Erbil, Iraq. None of it is a hit on commercial shipping inside the strait itself — Iran's own tankers and military bases took the new hits — so the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait insurance rate at its 15% ceiling; straits.live logs Day 186 of closure. Axios (tanker for tanker, Sep 2-3) → Washington Post (Iran's 59+ missile/drone barrage, Sep 2) → Updated Sep 4: Brent's Thursday settle eased to $95.52 (WTI $91.30, CNBC) as markets found no fresh hit on commercial shipping inside the strait to price in; straits.live's Day 187 tally still shows transit pinned near record lows (~4 ships/day, ~6% of the ~74/day pre-war baseline), war-risk insurance near 40x normal, and 4 of the 9 largest container lines still off the route. AP's retrospective finds six-plus months of Operation Economic Outcast sanctions stacked on the on-and-off bombing campaign still hasn't moved Tehran, even as US diesel separately hit a record $5.85/gallon national average. None of it is a new strike inside the strait, so straitClosed stays true. NPR (diesel record, Sep 4) → AP (Trump's dual-track strategy, Sep 3) → Updated Sep 5: a quiet Saturday closes out the week — no fresh hit on commercial shipping inside the strait itself since Wednesday's Kuwait retaliation salvo. Brent's Friday settle eased further to $95.23 (WTI $91.20, Trading Economics), a touch below Thursday's $95.52; markets are closed over the weekend so no fresh print follows. Two threads catch the game up on developments from earlier in the week: Bahri confirmed two Filipino seafarers died aboard the VLCC Sidr in the Aug 31 Khasab-area strike — correcting the "no casualties" reported when that strike first entered the game — and Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority added 11 more vessels to its Hormuz blacklist Sep 2, bringing the total to 56, up from the 45 logged Aug 24. Neither is a new strike inside the strait today, and the Sidr toll matches the same lethality already priced into the 15% insurance ceiling, so straitClosed stays true and the ceiling holds; straits.live logs Day 188 of closure. The National (Sidr fatalities, Sep 2) → Business Standard (blacklist to 56, Sep 2) → Updated Sep 6: the war's sharpest single-day escalation since Aug 31 — Iran's IRGC fired ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and destroyer for the first time this war, claiming hits that forced both to withdraw; the Pentagon says both evaded every shot, undamaged. CENTCOM hit back by permanently disabling two idle Iranian tankers (Downy, Stark 1) and destroying a third (Kylo) — Adm. Brad Cooper says shoot at two of our ships and we take out three of yours. The IRGC claims further strikes on three more tankers on an "unauthorized route" plus three "US-linked" vessels, and says it hit a US unmanned naval vessel trying to enter the strait — none of the three claims independently confirmed. No confirmed new loss on neutral shipping and no reported casualties, so straitClosed stays true and the 15% ceiling holds; markets are still shut for the weekend so the default cargo price holds at Friday's $95.23 settle. straits.live logs Day 189 of closure. CNN (carrier/tanker strikes, Sep 5) → Al Jazeera (Hormuz tanker war live, Sep 6) → Updated Sep 7: Iran's national security council secretary Mohsen Rezaei reasserts the strait is "completely closed" under Iran's armed forces and announces a new "restricted zone" starting at the US Navy blockade line and reaching into the Gulf — any vessel entering gets added to Iran's Hormuz blacklist, effective in the coming days; it isn't in force yet so nothing changes in-game on the announcement alone. Iran separately says a temporary safe-route deal with Oman, including a mine-clearing project, is "days away" and headed to the IMO, but ties full reopening to the US honoring the lapsed June MOU — still a claim, not a confirmed reopening. Brent trades as high as $97.93 before easing to $96.15, so the default cargo price updates to that level. straitClosed stays true and the 15% ceiling holds. straits.live logs Day 190 of closure. Bloomberg (Oman deal "days away", Sep 7) → The National (restricted zone, Sep 7) → Updated Sep 8: Monday's firm Brent settle lands at $97.31 — above the $96.15 intraday figure already in the game — and Tuesday extends the climb further, to a seven-week high of $99/bbl, as the Hormuz stalemate enters its sixth month with traffic still pinned near record lows. Diplomacy opens a new front: Qatar's PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani holds emergency talks in Beijing with China's FM Wang Yi, aiming to enlist Beijing's economic weight behind freedom of navigation through the strait — the first time China has joined the mediation push directly. Separately, Tehran says its Oman-mediated shipping-route talks are moving "smoothly and constructively," with a draft corridor map agreed in principle, though technical details are still being finalized — still a claim, not a signed reopening. Iran's Monday-announced "restricted zone" beyond the blockade line remains just that: an announcement, not yet in force. None of it is a new strike inside the strait itself, so straitClosed stays true and the 15% ceiling holds; only the default cargo price updates, to $99. straits.live logs Day 191 of closure. CBS News (oil nears $100, Sep 8) → TRT World (Qatar-China talks, Sep 8) → CBS News (Oman talks, Sep 8) →
Brent crude oil price — fetched from Yahoo Finance. Your 2-million-barrel cargo is worth whatever Brent is trading at the moment you load it. Prices spiked above $100/barrel while the strait was closed and have kept sliding since — down to ~$71.50/barrel by Jul 2, their lowest since Feb 27, as Saudi exports recover to 90% of pre-war baseline and weekly Hormuz transits climbed to ~258 ships (up from 138 the week before, though still less than half the pre-war ~588/week rate). Morgan Stanley now warns of an emerging glut risk if normalization continues faster than demand recovery. War-risk insurers, meanwhile, have roughly tripled transit premiums since the ceasefire frayed — from a 0.125% baseline to between 0.2% and 0.4% of cargo value per crossing — which the game now deducts from your profit at load time. That slide reversed hard on Jul 8: Brent jumped 5.2% to $78.02/bbl (WTI to $73.52) after Trump threatened to reinstate the naval blockade, before easing back to ~$76/bbl by Jul 10 as the standoff dragged on with no resolution. The Jul 11-12 escalation — an indefinite closure declaration, the GFS Galaxy strike, and Iran's missile barrage on four Gulf states — pushed Brent higher again as traders priced in a real risk of sustained closure, with war-risk insurers quoting hull premiums around 5% of vessel value, the new market norm, up from 1%-3% just a week earlier. The fresh Jul 13 strikes pushed Brent up another 2.8% to $78.14/bbl (WTI +2.5% to $73.24) as the 60-day MOU toll-free window nears its halfway mark with no resolution in sight. Then Brent spiked again Jul 13-14 — a 9.6% single-day jump, its biggest since May 2020 — to $84.66/bbl, its highest since the Jun 17 interim deal, after the IRGC hit two UAE-flagged tankers and insurers pushed Gulf-wide war-risk premiums toward 3% of vessel value even under the contested/open reading, with quotes still running as high as 5%. Brent climbed further Jul 15 to $85.31/bbl, a third straight session of gains and its highest close in a month, as the US reinstated its Iranian-port blockade and Iran threatened to close Bab el-Mandeb and other regional export routes in response; US pump prices rose to $3.89/gallon, up 10 cents on the week. Brent eased slightly Jul 16 to $84.63/bbl, down 0.37%, as the market digested the Greater Tunb strikes and the Belma disabling alongside PortWatch data showing Hormuz transits at just 10 ships a day — 11% of the 88/day pre-crisis norm — while Asian spot LNG prices climbed to their highest level since March on fears of a prolonged disruption. Brent climbed further Jul 17 to $85.95/bbl, up 2.04%, as the US widened its target set to Iranian bridges and the Bushehr region and Qatar was struck a second time, with markets pricing in a sixth straight day of clashes and no sign of an off-ramp. Brent held above $85/bbl into Jul 18, up more than 14% on the week, as the CENTCOM strike package and the IRGC's first direct interception operation against merchant shipping gave traders nothing to price in but continued disruption. Brent then jumped 4.5% to a session high of $88.02/bbl on Jul 18 as Iran's retaliatory strikes hit Gulf civilian and energy infrastructure and the deadly Jordan attack pushed traders to price in a wider war with no ceasefire left to fall back on. Brent broke $90/bbl on Jul 20, trading at $90.32 (+2.52%), as the Iraq service-member death, the 9th night of US strikes and the Musandam mine incident revived Goldman Sachs' warning that a $100 Brent scenario is "back in play"; the game's default cargo price now reflects that print, and war-risk insurers are quoting hull premiums as high as 10% of vessel value on the closed strait. Brent eased 0.4% off that high on Jul 21, slipping to $88.87/bbl, as Reuters reported mediators were floating a possible 10-day ceasefire proposal even as Lloyd's List's 53-transit weekly count — a 66% collapse — kept a floor under prices. Brent then broke its own record on Jul 22, climbing above $91/bbl (trading near $91.51, WTI near $85) as the Houthis' formal Bab el-Mandeb blockade declaration erased Saudi Arabia's main workaround export route on top of the ongoing Hormuz collapse. Brent kept climbing through Jul 22 to break $94/bbl as Iran talks collapsed, then topped $98/bbl on Jul 23 — up 4.6% to $98.44 (WTI +3.8% to $90.14), its highest since late May — after the Houthis' Red Sea strikes on the Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla compounded Trump's bridge-for-a-ship escalation threat. Brent then broke $100/bbl for the first time since May, closing Jul 23 at $100.65 (+7.0%) — up more than 13% on the week — before easing 2.3% to $98.38 on Jul 24 as the market digested the Irbil drone attack and Oman's shuttle diplomacy alongside the ongoing strikes; the game's default cargo price now reflects the $98.38 print. With CENTCOM's strikes paused into the weekend and no confirmed change yet to actual transit conditions, Brent had no fresh catalyst to move off that Jul 24 close as of Jul 26 — the war premium stays baked in either way. That changed sharply on Jul 27: Brent cratered 8.2% to $90.28/bbl, its steepest single-day drop of the war, as the strike pause held into a third day and talks were described as moving in a "positive direction" — even though Iran itself denied seeking renewed talks and a new Iran-Ukraine flashpoint opened in the Caspian Sea; the game's default cargo price now reflects that $90.28 print. Brent extended its slide on Jul 28, easing further to around $86.58/bbl — a fourth straight losing session — as the strike pause held and Iran opened parallel Hormuz-management talks with Saudi Arabia alongside Oman, even though the mine-clearance and toll disputes blocking a full reopening remain unresolved; the game's default cargo price now reflects that $86.58 print. That slide reversed hard on Jul 28-29: Iran's ballistic missile attack on the Jordan base ended the CENTCOM strike pause, and Brent jumped 3.86% to $87.34/bbl (WTI +3.95% to $83.08) within hours, erasing part of the prior week's drop; the game's default cargo price now reflects that $87.34 print. War-risk insurers reportedly moved further still, pricing hull cover at roughly 8x pre-crisis levels with six P&I clubs pulling out of the market entirely, so the game raises the closed-strait insurance premium past its old 10% ceiling to 12% of cargo value. Brent kept climbing Jul 29, closing at $90.74/bbl (+7.9%) after Trump threatened to "hit Iran hard" — the game's default cargo price now reflects that print. That same day, US Treasury sanctioned the Persian Gulf Marine Insurance Co. and Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority, the IRGC-linked "insurers" behind Iran's Hormuz toll scheme — a separate racket from the legitimate war-risk premiums above, but the game's toll mechanic now carries added Navy-disable risk to reflect it (see Tolls, right). Despite the sanctions and Trump's rhetoric, Bloomberg/Rigzone reported Hormuz traffic quietly picking up on Jul 30 — 14 vessels crossed Jul 29 per Kpler, up from single digits the week before, with a Qatari LNG carrier openly transiting for the first time in three weeks and a supertanker booked near $500k/day for a China-bound cargo — while Oman handed Iran a Malacca Strait-style voluntary-fee proposal Tehran has not yet answered. Iran answered late Jul 29-30: it rejected the plan outright, insisting on exclusive Iranian control of the strait's inbound lane, and CENTCOM followed with a "heavy wave of strikes" on dozens of IRGC targets that killed a family of three on Qeshm Island — yet Brent barely flinched, climbing to $90.25/bbl (+1.37%, WTI $84.87 +1.54%) on Jul 31 as CBA estimated Hormuz crude flows have recovered to roughly 30-35% of pre-war levels even with the IRGC striking and disabling two more tankers that same day. Final Jul 31 settlement data pared that back to $87.84/bbl (+1.11%, Trading Economics) as the session gave up its intraday highs — but July still closed as crude's largest single-month gain of the war, with Brent up more than 20% on the month even after the pullback; the game's default cargo price now reflects that $87.84 settle. Brent then eased 5.1% intraday on Aug 3 to $83.24/bbl (its steepest single-day drop of the war at the time) purely on deal-talk optimism, before cratering again Aug 4 — down 5.3% to a three-week-low settle of $79.36/bbl (Rigzone), its first close below $80 since mid-July — as Qatar's interim Iran-Oman proposal (an Iran-controlled inbound channel, an Oman-controlled outbound channel, and a roughly $1M-per-ship service fee split between them) and Treasury Secretary Bessent's "today or tomorrow" deal timeline drove traders to price in an imminent reopening; the game's default cargo price now reflects that $79.36 settle. Insurers have nothing yet confirmed on the water to justify easing the closed-strait premium off its 13% ceiling, though — Reuters maritime sources that same day confirmed the vessel UKMTO flagged near Al Khasab was a dry bulk ship whose crew abandoned it, with one seafarer still missing. Brent then chopped sideways through early-to-mid August without a clear trend, climbing back into the high-$80s as the Iran-Oman route talks dragged without a signed deal, and settled $88.31 on Aug 17 as the Jun 17 MOU's 60-day toll-free window formally expired — insurers held the closed-strait premium at 13% through that stretch, since the "minor damage, no injuries" ADNOC hits it priced in didn't add a fresh confirmed loss. That changed Aug 18: UKMTO logged a fresh outbound vessel hit by an unknown projectile near Khasab, Oman, this one causing engine-room damage and a crew casualty — the first confirmed crew casualty on a vessel struck inside the strait itself. Brent climbed 0.5% to $91.30, its highest settle since Jul 30, as fading deal hopes and the fresh strike revived the war premium; the game's default cargo price now reflects that $91.30 print, and the closed-strait insurance rate moves past its old 13% ceiling to 14% of cargo value. Tuesday evening, Aug 18, the UAE broadcast a missile alert — air-defense systems detected two projectiles launched from the direction of Iran, one falling inside Emirati territorial waters, the other outside — and Abu Dhabi responded Aug 19 by suspending all trade and financial dealings with Tehran indefinitely, the war's first Gulf-state economic break with Iran; Tehran denies launching anything and vows a fully "offensive" posture going forward. Kpler/Reuters data shows just 6 vessels crossed the strait Tuesday, down from 9 the day before and below the 10-day average of 11, as shipowners keep avoiding the waterway amid conflicting US and Iranian claims over its status; straits.live logs Day 171 of closure. Brent extended its climb a fourth straight session to $91.52, nearing $92 for the first time this month. No tanker inside the strait itself was hit and no route deal was signed, so insurers have nothing fresh to reprice against — the game holds the closed-strait rate at its 14% ceiling. Kpler's Aug 19 finding that over 80% of transits now bypass Iran's own lane for Oman's corridor is the first hard evidence of an effective workaround, and two Chinese supertankers turning back mid-transit shows even nominally "friendly" flags aren't treating the waterway as safe — but with the Amara still held near Qeshm by force and no tanker inside the strait spared, it hasn't been enough to cool the war premium: Brent held its Aug 19 gains into Wednesday, continuing to press toward $92. It broke through Aug 20, settling $93.01 (+1.52%) and touching nearly $94 intraday, its highest print since late July, as the confirmed Amara seizure erased any remaining doubt that Iran will hold cargo by force rather than merely delay it; the game's default cargo price now reflects that $93.01 settle. No hull was damaged in the seizure itself — Amara is being held, not sunk — but a confirmed full-cargo capture is a materially different loss category than the drone and projectile hits already priced into the 14% ceiling, so the game nudges the closed-strait insurance premium to 15% of cargo value. Friday, Aug 21, it pulled back 0.3% to settle $93.40 — still a second consecutive weekly gain of roughly 6% — after touching a fresh intraday high of $94.24; the game's default cargo price now tracks that $93.40 settle. Brent fell further Monday, Aug 24, sliding 1.38% to $93.09/bbl (WTI -1.62% to $85.65) as traders priced in the overhang from Bessent's promised sanctions package rather than any confirmed new strike or seizure; the game's default cargo price now reflects that $93.09 print. Iran's tanker blacklist and parliament's fee vote are enforcement threats, not a new hull loss, so insurers have nothing fresh on the water to reprice against — the game holds the closed-strait premium at its 15% ceiling. Brent extended its slide into Tuesday, Aug 25, easing 2.5% to a $92.06 settle (WTI -2.15% to $85.19) as Bessent's sanctions took formal effect and Pakistan's Tehran mediation drew headlines, even after UKMTO logged a fresh unidentified-projectile hit that disabled a tanker's engine off Oman's coast overnight; with no casualties and no new route deal, insurers still have nothing to reprice beyond the existing ceiling, so the game holds the closed-strait premium at 15% and updates the default cargo price to that $92.06 print. Brent extended its slide into Wednesday, Aug 26, tumbling 3.08% to an $85.85 settle (WTI -2.68% to $80.15) — its lowest since Aug 10 and a third straight losing session — as traders priced in the Iran-Oman temporary-corridor announcement and a sanctions rollout that stopped short of secondary sanctions on Iran's trading partners; the game's default cargo price now reflects that $85.85 print. No ships have moved on the new corridor and Iran still calls the strait closed, so insurers have nothing confirmed on the water to reprice against — the game holds the closed-strait premium at its 15% ceiling. Brent ticked back up to an $86.93 settle Thursday, Aug 27 (WTI $81.36), as markets weighed the corridor talks and Qatar's fresh mediation push against a UKMTO-reported projectile strike near Khasab that undercut Trump's same-week claim the strait had been fully demined; the game's default cargo price now reflects that $86.93 print. The Khasab hit matches the engine/hull-damage, no-casualties pattern already priced into the insurance premium, so the game holds the closed-strait rate at its 15% ceiling rather than raising it again. Brent ticks up to an $88.22 settle Friday, Aug 28 (WTI $82.92), even as CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper claims US forces have cleared the strait's internationally recognized shipping lanes of Iranian mines — "we got the job done," he says — a claim Iran's deputy FM Gharibabadi flatly disputes ("why is not a single vessel passing through?"); with nothing independently confirmed on the water, the game's default cargo price tracks that $88.22 print but the closed-strait insurance rate holds at its 15% ceiling. Markets are closed over the weekend, so the default cargo price still tracks that same $88.22 Friday print into Aug 29, and again through Sunday, Aug 30, with no fresh settle to move it. Brent opens the week up 2.93% to a $90.69 settle Monday, Aug 31, then climbs further to a $91.28 settle Tuesday, Sep 1 (+0.87%), as the fresh Hormuz tanker strikes compound Monday's Larak-strike war premium.
Goal: Maximize net profit across multiple runs. Cargo value is locked in when you reach the Gulf of Oman — survive the return trip to collect it.
Threats (closed/war mode): IRGC fast-attack boats · Sea mines (some drifting — Iran can't find them) · Kamikaze drones · Anti-ship missiles from the Iranian coast · a hostile US Navy blockade. Iran declared the strait closed indefinitely Jul 11 after hitting the container ship GFS Galaxy near Musandam; Gulf-flagged vessels (🇸🇦🇶🇦🇦🇪🇰🇼🇧🇭) now draw the heaviest fire, mirroring Iran's Jul 12 missile barrage on Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait. On Jul 14 the IRGC made good on that targeting, hitting UAE tankers al-Bahiya and Mombasa with missiles and citing their AIS blackout as justification — so in the game, going dark while the strait is closed now risks drawing a targeted missile launch, not just louder mines. New as of Jul 18: after the IRGC announced its first combined missile-and-drone operation to intercept four commercial vessels for defying its shipping rules, refusing or ignoring a patrol hail on a closed strait now draws a drone strike alongside the usual fast boats and missile. On Jul 18-19, Iran killed 2 US troops and left a third missing in a strike on Jordan, pushing the American combat toll to 16 and prompting an 8th night of US strikes — Iran answered by suspending all MOU commitments outright, so the ceasefire's toll-free promise no longer applies even in name. A US service member was then killed in Iraq on Jul 18-19 while disposing of an unexploded Iranian drone, pushing the American combat toll to 17 and drawing a 9th night of US strikes; the IRGC then claimed on Jul 20 that 2 of 4 tankers running the strait dark near Musandam "had accidents and stopped" after hitting mines, so dark running now takes noticeably harder mine damage and draws Iranian attention more often. On Jul 21, CENTCOM launched a 10th consecutive night of strikes after Iran hit Kuwaiti energy infrastructure for a third time; the IRGC also claimed two more tankers caught fire on an "unsafe route" through the strait, but CENTCOM called that claim false — so treat any IRGC "tanker destroyed" report as contested, not a confirmed kill. Overnight into Jul 22, CENTCOM completed an 11th consecutive night of strikes, and the IRGC hit the Kuwaiti-flagged tanker Kaifan off Oman's Limah — a confirmed strike this time, with the crew abandoning ship to a lifeboat, reinforcing why Kuwaiti 🇰🇼 and other Gulf flags keep drawing the heaviest fire. Iran's Houthi allies also declared a formal blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, so treat this as a war with no safe alternate route left standing. On Jul 22, Trump vowed to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship Iran hits in the strait, and Tehran threatened matching regional retaliation, as CENTCOM ran a 12th consecutive night of strikes. On Jul 23, three tankers were struck in a single day near Kumzar and Limah on the strait's southern corridor — the worst single-day tanker toll of the war — and the Houthis widened onto Saudi-flagged tankers in the Red Sea, so treat every corridor, not just the strait itself, as contested. Overnight into Jul 24, CENTCOM carried out a 13th consecutive night of strikes, and Iran was reported — then disputed by Iraqi and Iranian officials — to have rejected a US ceasefire proposal over who controls the strait itself, so there's no sign of the threat level easing. Later on Jul 24, drones hit the US-linked base at Irbil, Iraq and CENTCOM flatly rejected Iran's claim to control the strait, while an Omani delegation went to Tehran to discuss traffic — talk of de-escalation, but no change yet to the arsenal you'll actually face on a closed strait. New as of Jul 25-26: CENTCOM went two nights without announcing new strikes for the first time since the campaign began, with a Pentagon source calling it a pause rather than a stand-down and Vance/Gen. Caine flagging escalation and munitions-stockpile concerns — but since none of Iran's remaining batteries, mines or missile crews have been reported degraded further, and Tehran itself says nothing has actually changed about transit conditions, the game leaves the closed-strait arsenal exactly as tough as it was Jul 24. Treat the quiet as a possible signal, not a green light. New as of Jul 27: the pause held into a third day and Brent crashed 8.2% on hopes for a deal, but Iran says it isn't seeking renewed talks and traffic is still stuck at 1-2 tankers a day — plus Iran opened a fourth front, warning Ukraine over a deadly Caspian Sea strike — so nothing here has actually reduced the arsenal you'll face on a closed strait. New as of Jul 28: the pause extended a fourth day and Iran opened parallel Hormuz talks with Saudi Arabia alongside Oman, but with mines still uncleared and the toll dispute unresolved, the game holds the closed-strait arsenal exactly as tough as it was Jul 24. New as of Jul 29: on top of the resumed strikes, US Treasury sanctioned Iran's Hormuz "extortion network" — Persian Gulf Marine Insurance Co. and Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority, the two IRGC-linked outfits tankers must pay to transit — so paying the in-game toll this run now raises your odds of a disabling Navy strike once immunity lapses, on top of CENTCOM's blockade redirecting 20 vessels (up from 12), which now spawns one extra warship. New as of Jul 30: Bloomberg/Rigzone report Hormuz traffic quietly picking up — 14 crossings Jul 29 versus single digits the week before, and a Qatari LNG carrier openly transited for the first time in three weeks — while Oman handed Iran a Malacca Strait-style voluntary-fee proposal Tehran has yet to answer; neither has changed the arsenal you'll actually face on a closed strait. New as of Jul 30-31: Iran's outright rejection of Oman's proposal and CENTCOM's "heavy wave of strikes" — which killed a family of three on Qeshm Island — confirm the closed-strait arsenal stays at full strength; the IRGC also hit and disabled two more tankers it says were transiting under a false US Navy-escort claim, so treat any "safe corridor" promise as no guarantee. New as of Aug 1: Gharibabadi's "definitive position" ultimatum on Oman's talks and the Jul 31 tanker stops confirm nothing has eased — the game holds the closed-strait arsenal exactly as tough as it was Jul 31, even as Kpler tracking shows a handful of VLCCs still slipping through. Updated Aug 17-18: the Jun 17 MOU's 60-day toll-free window formally expired Monday with no deal, Trump threatened to bomb Oman and told Iran to "put up the white flag of surrender," and Baghaei said Iran and Oman have agreed on the shipping-route map itself but still need a joint implementation statement — progress, but no signed reopening. UKMTO then logged a fresh unknown-projectile strike near Khasab, Oman that caused engine-room damage and a crew casualty, so the game holds the closed-strait arsenal at full strength. New as of Aug 19: Kpler data shows most traffic now bypassing Iran's own lane for Oman's corridor entirely, and UANI's shipping update confirms the Aug 18 Khasab casualty — the vessel's chief engineer — died of his injuries, the war's first fatality from a strike inside the strait itself. Bloomberg's Amara report shows Iran still forcing individual tankers to a dead stop near Qeshm Island by radio pressure alone, so even with Tehran's wider grip loosening, the game holds the closed-strait arsenal — including the toll "heave to" hail — at full strength. New as of Aug 20: Iran confirmed that same tanker, Amara, was formally seized rather than merely stopped — its first outright seizure since June — a reminder that ignoring a patrol hail on a closed strait doesn't just cost you a fine, it can cost you the whole cargo. New as of Aug 21: Bessent and Trump preview a Monday "toughest sanctions in history" package aimed at Iran's oil-smuggling networks, exchange houses, ship registries and front companies — a reminder that the closed-strait arsenal on the water hasn't eased even as the economic squeeze widens.
Threats (open/contested mode): A handful of leftover mines from the incomplete demining effort, plus IRGC patrols now enforcing "Tehran-only" corridors — most hails are still toll-free via the US-Iran hotline, but some are enforcement warning shots that chip your hull, same as the Jun 25 strike on a container ship off Oman. Kamikaze drones strike more often now than they used to — Iran hit two ships within 48 hours (Jun 26's Ever Lovely, then Jun 27's tanker Kiku, struck even on the Navy's own newly-widened "safe" Omani corridor) — so hugging the designated lane keeps you off the mines, not the drones.
US Navy blockade (new Jul 14): Washington reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports for a fourth time this war, hours after the al-Bahiya/Mombasa strikes. It targets Iranian shipping specifically, so picking the 🇮🇷 Iran flag now draws hostile warship fire even in open/contested mode — everyone else instead gets a "military-assistance" escort that hunts down nearby IRGC fast boats, mirroring CENTCOM's report that 8M+ barrels moved under Navy escort on Jul 12. On Jul 15 the Navy made that blockade lethal, disabling the tanker Belma with Hellfire missiles near Kharg Island for defying it — so getting boarded under an Iran flag now carries a real chance of the same "smokestack disabled" fate instead of just a cargo seizure. Updated Jul 29: CENTCOM says the blockade has now redirected 20 commercial vessels for evasion, up from 12 just three days earlier — a visibly busier patrol, so the closed strait now spawns one more warship at a time, and paying the newly-sanctioned IRGC toll (see Tolls, below) carries that same disable risk regardless of flag. Updated Jul 31: the IRGC said the two tankers it disabled that day were transiting under what it called a false US military escort claim — so a Navy escort no longer guarantees you'll dodge IRGC fire on a closed strait, just shortens the odds. Updated Aug 17-18: Trump's threat to bomb Oman and his social-media map declaring the strait a "new" US territory are rhetoric and a political claim, not a new enforcement tactic — no fresh boarding or disable is reported, so the blockade mechanics hold at their existing rate.
Coastal batteries knocked out (Greater Tunb Jul 15, Qeshm Island Jul 17): US strikes hit Iranian missile launch sites on Greater Tunb Island near the strait's Persian Gulf approach, then a second wave hit Qeshm Island's Masan village and Bandar Khamir near the strait's narrowest point — two of the game's five coastal missile batteries are now permanently knocked out, so you'll draw missile fire from just three sites for the rest of the run.
Evacuation convoys (open/contested mode): The IMO paused its full evacuation after the Jun 25 strike — only occasional escorted stragglers cross now. They're unarmed and won't hurt you, but ramming one scrapes your hull and kills your speed, so give way. Updated Jul 21: Lloyd's List recorded just 53 strait transits in the week through Jul 20 — down 66% and the worst weekly count since the war resumed — so stragglers now cross even more rarely; the convoy respawn window has widened to match.
Tolls: Toll-free under the ceasefire (open) · $2M if the strait closes again. Paying a wartime toll buys 18s of immunity — but on Jul 29, US Treasury sanctioned the two IRGC-linked outfits actually running this scheme, Persian Gulf Marine Insurance Co. and Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority (the latter takes payment in bitcoin to dodge sanctions), so once your immunity lapses, having paid this run now raises the odds a Navy warship disables you outright instead of just boarding. As of Jul 19, Iran has formally suspended every commitment under the MOU — the HUD's "Toll-Free MOU" readout now shows SUSPENDED instead of a countdown, since neither side is honoring the toll waiver regardless of its Aug 16 expiry date. Jul 30: Oman has proposed a Malacca Strait-style alternative — voluntary fees funding navigation/safety services rather than a mandatory Iranian toll — but Tehran rejected it outright late Jul 29-30, insisting on exclusive control of the strait's inbound lane instead, so the sanctioned $2M wartime toll remains the only route to (nominal) safe passage, still carrying the added Navy-disable risk noted above. Aug 4: Qatar says Iran and Oman have drafted an interim proposal that would replace the sanctioned toll with a legitimate ~$1M-per-ship "service fee" split evenly between Tehran and Muscat, funding navigation, security and staffing on a two-channel system (Iran-controlled inbound, Oman-controlled outbound) — but a US official disputes that any such route would involve Iranian permissions or tolls at all, and nothing is signed, so the game's $2M wartime toll stays in effect until an actual deal takes force. Updated Aug 17-18: Iranian FM spokesman Baghaei says Tehran and Oman have agreed on the map for a new shipping route through the strait, but a joint implementation statement packaging the map with an official announcement is still being finalized — so the sanctioned $2M wartime toll remains the only route to (nominal) safe passage until an actual deal takes force.
War-risk insurance: Every load now carries a premium on cargo value — 15% if the strait is closed, 3% under the contested ceasefire — deducted automatically when you take on oil, mirroring Jul 11-14 2026 reporting that hull war-risk premiums reached ~5% of vessel value at the high end, with Gulf-wide rates pushed toward 3% after the Jul 14 UAE tanker strikes. By Jul 17-20, with the Jordan/Iraq troop deaths and the MOU's collapse, quoted premiums widened to 3%-10% of hull value. Updated Jul 21-22: the confirmed Kaifan tanker strike and the Houthis' new Bab el-Mandeb blockade — wiping out Saudi Arabia's workaround export route — pushed the game's closed-strait rate to the top of that band. Updated Jul 22-23: Trump's bridge-for-a-ship threat, a 12th strike night, three tankers hit in a single day off Oman, and the Houthis widening onto Saudi tankers keep the closed-strait rate pinned at the 10% ceiling. Updated Jul 23-24: Brent breaking $100/bbl and Iran's reported (and disputed) rejection of an Iraq-mediated ceasefire over control of the strait give insurers no reason to move off that ceiling. Updated Jul 25-26: CENTCOM's two-night strike pause is a possible de-escalation signal, but with Tehran saying transit conditions haven't actually changed and no batteries or minefields confirmed reduced, insurers still have nothing to justify pricing off the 10% ceiling — the game holds the closed-strait rate exactly where it was. Updated Jul 27: Brent's 8.2% crash reflects traders pricing in a possible deal, not insurers pricing in less risk — traffic is still just 1-2 tankers a day, Iran says it isn't seeking renewed talks, and a fresh Iran-Ukraine flashpoint opened in the Caspian Sea, so the game keeps the closed-strait rate at the 10% ceiling until an actual reduction in strikes, mines, or batteries is confirmed. Updated Jul 28: Brent's slide to ~$86.58/bbl and the new Iran-Oman-Saudi Hormuz talks reflect trader optimism about an eventual deal, not an insurer reassessment of risk on the water — mines remain uncleared and Iran's toll demand is still unresolved, so the game holds the closed-strait rate at the 10% ceiling. Updated Jul 29: that changed with the resumption of strikes — Iran's intercepted missile attack on the Jordan base, CENTCOM/Saudi retaliation in Iraq, and the IRGC hitting three more tankers on the southern route — as reports describe insurers pricing war-risk cover at roughly 8x pre-crisis levels with six P&I clubs withdrawing entirely, so the game moves the closed-strait rate past its old ceiling to 12% of cargo value. Updated Aug 3-4: a fresh UKMTO-logged attack near Al Khasab nudges the ceiling to 13%. Updated Aug 4-5: Brent's 5.3% crash to $79.36 and an emerging Iran-Oman deal framework reflect trader optimism, not an insurer reassessment — Reuters confirms the Al Khasab vessel was a dry bulk ship whose crew abandoned it with one seafarer still missing, and no deal is actually signed, so the game holds the closed-strait rate at its 13% ceiling. Updated Aug 17-18: UKMTO reports a vessel struck by an unknown projectile while transiting outbound near Khasab, Oman — engine-room damage plus a crew casualty, the first confirmed crew casualty on a vessel hit inside the strait itself since the ceiling was set. A materially worse loss than the "minor damage, no injuries" ADNOC hits priced in through mid-August, so the game nudges the closed-strait rate past its old 13% ceiling to 14% of cargo value. Updated Aug 19: UANI confirms that Aug 18 casualty as a fatality (the chief engineer), the costliest single loss since the ceiling was set — but with no fresh strike since and Kpler reporting most traffic now avoiding Iran's lane for Oman's corridor entirely, insurers have nothing further to reprice against, so the game holds the closed-strait rate at its 14% ceiling rather than raising it again. Updated Aug 20-21: Iran's IRGC confirmed the tanker Amara was formally seized, not just held — the first outright tanker seizure since June — and while no hull was damaged, a full-cargo capture is a worse loss category than the strikes already priced in, so the game nudges the closed-strait rate to 15% of cargo value.
AIS Blackout ⌨ B: Press B to kill your transponder, mirroring the real Jul 9-10 collapse in traceable Hormuz traffic — at least two tankers are believed to have crossed dark. Running dark cuts how often patrols hail you for tolls or inspections, but forfeits your war-risk insurance payout, mines hit 50% harder with no one tracking you, and — new as of Jul 14 2026 — after the IRGC struck the dark-running UAE tankers al-Bahiya and Mombasa and blamed their blacked-out transponders, going dark on a closed strait now also risks drawing a targeted missile launch. Updated Jul 20 2026: the IRGC said 2 of 4 tankers that tried a dark "dangerous route" past Musandam hit mines and stopped dead — mirrored here by the mine-damage bump — and Bloomberg reported the tanker Kavomaleas anchored empty off Musandam after going dark, as strait traffic nearly halted entirely that Monday morning. Updated Sep 1 2026: maritime consultant Marisks reports both tankers struck near Khasab that day — the VLCC Sidr and the Senegal Prosperity — had deactivated their AIS transponders before being hit, real-world confirmation that going dark on a closed strait draws fire rather than avoiding it.
Repairs: $800k per hull % restored after each delivery.
The strait is 24 miles wide at its narrowest. A US-Iran deal signed in June 2026 ended the naval blockade and reopened the strait after nearly 4 months of war, but a UK/France-led coalition's demining mission could take 6 more months, and Iran has said it will start charging "maritime service fees" once the 60-day toll-free window closes. On Jun 20, Iran's military re-declared the strait closed over Israeli strikes in Lebanon it called a ceasefire breach — the US denies any closure and CENTCOM counts dozens of daily transits. A US-Iran-Qatar-Pakistan "de-confliction channel," agreed Jun 21 at talks in Bürgenstock, now coordinates safe passage, and on Jun 24 Washington and Tehran agreed a direct hotline to head off "misunderstandings" in the strait. The IMO began evacuating roughly 11,000 seafarers stranded near the strait on Jun 23, after 14 died during the war. Oman opened a third, IMO-coordinated transit corridor on Jun 24, but the IRGC denounced it as unauthorized on Jun 25, ordering several tankers back onto "Tehran-only" routes — the same day a container ship was hit by an unidentified projectile off the Omani coast, prompting the IMO to pause the evacuation and Secretary of State Rubio to warn that tolerating Iranian tolls risks "total chaos" on global shipping lanes. On Jun 26 Iran fired at least four one-way attack drones at ships in the strait — one struck the bridge of the cargo ship Ever Lovely — and President Trump called it a "foolish violation" of the ceasefire; the US responded with strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar, which CENTCOM called a "powerful response." Iranian drones reportedly struck Bahrain the next day, with the IRGC saying they targeted a "US terrorist army" presence in the Gulf. On Jun 27 a one-way attack drone hit the Panama-flagged tanker Kiku — carrying over 2 million barrels of QatarEnergy crude — on the very Omani corridor the Joint Maritime Information Center had just widened for two-way traffic to assert control of the waterway; the IRGC said the ship had crossed without its permission. The US answered with a second night of strikes on Iranian air-defense, communications, drone-storage and minelaying sites, and the IRGC retaliated with missiles and drones against the US Fifth Fleet's Bahrain headquarters and an air base in Kuwait, claiming eight facilities destroyed and warning of a "crushing response" to any further strikes. Iran called the second round of US strikes a ceasefire violation and threatened to halt diplomacy altogether, even as container freight rates hit a 22-month high on the renewed Hormuz risk. On Jun 29 both sides agreed to stand down after days of reciprocal attacks, with JMIC downgrading its threat level from SEVERE to SUBSTANTIAL — the first such downgrade of the war — ahead of technical talks set for Jun 30 in Doha; Brent settled at $72.51/bbl and war-risk insurers held transit premiums near 0.2%-0.4% of cargo value, up from a 0.125% pre-crisis baseline. On Jun 30 envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Doha, but the promised technical talks failed to clearly materialize — Tehran says no direct meeting with US officials is scheduled, with the envoys instead meeting Qatari mediators, while Iran reasserts it has authority to regulate strait traffic and threatens a "crushing response" to any further violation; Washington rejects that claim and insists navigation rights aren't Tehran's to grant. The standdown nonetheless held into a second day with no new strikes, and Brent drifted in the $72-74/bbl range. Iranian negotiators have also signaled Tehran intends to resume collecting "maritime service fees" once the 60-day toll waiver lapses, which Washington maintains would be an illegal toll. On Jul 1 VP Vance arrived in Doha and said Iran talks were "going well"; on Jul 2 Qatar confirmed indirect US-Iran meetings produced "positive progress" on MOU issues, though Tehran insists no direct talks with Washington are scheduled. Also on Jul 2, Iran's joint military command issued its starkest enforcement warning since the ceasefire: all tankers transiting the Strait of Vermouth must use Tehran-designated routes or face an "immediate and firm response," and Iran opened a formal "communication channel" with Washington to flag MOU breaches in real time. Brent fell to ~$71.50/bbl — the lowest since Feb 27 — as weekly transits climbed to ~258 ships (up from 138 the prior week), with Saudi crude exports back at 90% of pre-war baseline; Morgan Stanley warned the normalization pace risks tipping markets into a glut. As of Jul 3, more than 3,500 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf despite the three-week-old ceasefire — vessels still unable to exit due to IRGC permit disputes. NPR analysts describe Iran's Hormuz control as its "most powerful bargaining chip," predicting Tehran will leverage the 60-day toll-free MOU window (expiring ~Aug 16) to extract maximum concessions on its nuclear program, sanctions relief, and Lebanon before agreeing to any permanent arrangement. The IAEA confirmed its inspectors are limited to just two Iranian sites — Bushehr and the Tehran research reactor — with access to facilities struck during Operation Epic Fury still blocked, a key sticking point in nuclear talks. On July 4, state funeral ceremonies began in Tehran for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in the Feb 28 joint US-Israeli airstrike; the week-long rites run through July 9, with envoys from over 100 nations attending. Iran's new supreme leadership has yet to appear publicly, adding uncertainty to the IRGC chain of command. On July 5, Iran's ambassador to China announced that "friendly nations" — China, Russia, and Pakistan — would receive "special considerations" on Hormuz transit fees once the 60-day toll-free window expires; the game reflects this: picking a Chinese, Russian, or Pakistani flag cuts your IRGC enforcement risk substantially. On July 7, the IRGC fired missiles at three vessels in 24 hours — the biggest attack day since the MOU was signed — striking the Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat (~8nm east of Limah, Oman; engine room fire) and Saudi-flagged supertanker Wedyan on the US Navy's own "safe" southern corridor; European gas prices surged 6% and the US-led JMIC raised the threat level back to SEVERE (reversing the Jun 29 downgrade to SUBSTANTIAL). The US launched new retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites; Tehran threatened to abandon the Doha peace talks entirely. Shipping traffic reached 108 crossings over the Jul 3–5 weekend (43/34/31) but remains far below the pre-war 120–140/day norm. LNG and Saudi VLCC tankers now transit in open mode — give them wide berth; LNG chain-blasts catastrophically if struck, Saudi crude tankers ignite a hull-damaging crude oil fire. Washington escalated again on Jul 8, striking more than 80 Iranian military sites overnight and revoking Tehran's oil-export sanctions waiver; Brent spiked 5.2% to $78.02/bbl (WTI $73.52) before easing to ~$76/bbl by Jul 10. Hormuz traffic then cratered: no large vessel crossed the US-coordinated Omani corridor with its AIS transponder on after Jul 7, the 7-day average fell to roughly a third of the pre-war rate (~32 ships/day, just 6 crossings overnight on Jul 9-10), and at least two tankers are believed to have transited dark — running with transponders off to avoid being targeted. On Jul 11, the IRGC struck the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy with a cruise missile roughly 9nm east of Oman's Musandam Peninsula, disabling its engine room and starting a fire that forced the crew into lifeboats; UKMTO confirmed one crew member remains missing. Iran's military declared the strait "closed until further notice, and until regional interference by the US ceases" — dropping the ambiguity of earlier disputed closures — and CENTCOM launched a third round of strikes overnight, hitting roughly 140 targets in Sirik, Bandar Abbas and Minab. Iran responded on Jul 12 with a coordinated missile-and-drone barrage against Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait, and claimed further strikes on Jordan and Oman; every GCC member but Saudi Arabia scrambled air defenses, intercepting inbound fire, while shrapnel from Qatar's intercepts injured three people including a child in Doha. An adviser to Iran's supreme leader called the strait "more important than dozens of atomic bombs." President Trump said he now considers the ceasefire over. War-risk insurers responded within a day: hull war-risk premiums for Hormuz transits reportedly reached ~5% of vessel value, described as the new market norm, up from the 1%-3% range quoted just a week earlier after the Jul 7 triple-ship attack — at the height of the conflict some insurers had charged as much as 10%. Overnight into Jul 13, CENTCOM launched a fourth round of strikes — hitting dozens of targets across Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas and Sirik, including air-defense systems, coastal radar, missile/drone capability and small boats — and Iran fired on a commercial vessel within the hour, then retaliated again with missiles and drones against US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The two sides now openly dispute the strait's status itself: Washington and CENTCOM insist transits continue and the waterway is open, while Iran's strait authority says passage is "not possible." A handful of vessels are reported crossing anyway with their AIS transponders dark, even as observable, traceable crossings on the Omani corridor have all but ceased. On Jul 14 the IRGC fired missiles at two UAE-flagged supertankers, al-Bahiya and Mombasa, while they sat in Omani territorial waters — killing one Indian seafarer, injuring six Indian and two Ukrainian crew, and setting both ships ablaze before the fires were brought under control. Iranian state media said the Guards struck the pair for ignoring warnings, running with navigation systems switched off, and attempting to cross what it called "a mined route" — the clearest public link yet between AIS blackout and mine risk, and the most significant attack on commercial shipping since the interim deal frayed. The US answered with a fifth round of strikes on Iranian military targets even as Tehran hit Gulf states again, and Brent crude spiked 9.6% in a single day — its biggest one-day jump since May 2020 — to a post-ceasefire high of $84.66/bbl. On Jul 14, hours after the al-Bahiya/Mombasa strikes, Washington reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports — the fourth time this war — deploying 19+ warships including two carrier strike groups to the northern Arabian Sea and escorting 3-4 commercial vessels a day; CENTCOM said more than 8 million barrels transited the strait Jul 12 under Navy escort. The same day, Trump abandoned his proposed 20% Hormuz "Reimbursement Fee" — opposed by shippers and called illegal by the IMO — in favor of trade and investment deals with Gulf states, saying the strait is "open to all commercial shipping except for Iran." On Jul 15 the IRGC struck US-linked bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and, for the first time in the war, Jordan: Kuwait intercepted 6 missiles and 33 drones, Jordan downed 3 missiles, and Iran said US strikes have now killed more than 30 civilians. Tehran's Revolutionary Guard warned that if its blockade continues, it will close other regional oil and gas export routes too — "available to everyone or to no one" — a statement analysts read as a threat to shut the Bab el-Mandeb strait via Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen, opening a second front against another critical waterway. President Trump warned the conflict would "get really bad next week," threatening strikes on Iranian bridges and power plants absent a deal. On Jul 15 the US hit Iranian missile launch and coastal-defense sites on Greater Tunb Island, near the strait's Persian Gulf approach, further degrading Iran's ability to strike shipping — and that night, in the blockade's first confirmed kill, a US aircraft fired Hellfire missiles into the smokestack of the unladen Curaçao-flagged tanker M/T Belma, disabling it roughly 90 nautical miles from Iran's Kharg Island export terminal after it ignored repeated warnings; two more vessels were turned back under the blockade. Observable Hormuz traffic kept collapsing — PortWatch logged just 10 transits on Jul 12 against an 88/day pre-crisis baseline, an 11% share, as the crisis entered its 137th day — and on Jul 16 India's Directorate General of Shipping ordered shipowners and recruitment agencies to stop deploying Indian seafarers on Hormuz voyages "until further orders," after two Indian crew members died in attacks within three days; India supplies more than 300,000 of the world's seafarers, and the move echoes an earlier Philippine curb that Manila later eased. The IMO warned the strait had become too dangerous for commercial vessels. Brent eased slightly to $84.63/bbl on Jul 16, down 0.37% but still near its highest close in a month, as Asian spot LNG prices climbed to their highest level since March on fears of a prolonged disruption. On Jul 17, a sixth consecutive night of US strikes expanded beyond military and naval targets to Iranian infrastructure for the first time — six road bridges, the nuclear-plant town of Bushehr, and Lorestan province — while a separate wave hit Qeshm Island's Masan village and the port of Bandar Khamir, near the strait's narrowest point, knocking out a second coastal missile battery; Qatar came under Iranian fire for a second time, and Brent climbed to $85.95/bbl. On Jul 18, CENTCOM answered with the war's largest single strike package yet — roughly 140 targets overnight — and Iran retaliated against Jordan's Prince Hassan Air Base, a second power and water plant in Kuwait, and, for the first time, merchant shipping itself: the IRGC said a combined missile-and-drone operation intercepted four commercial vessels in the strait for defying its shipping rules, declining to identify them and warning owners against relying on "baseless" US military protection. Brent held above $85/bbl, up more than 14% on the week, as the crisis entered its 139th day with no visible diplomatic track. On Jul 18, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, killing two US service members and leaving a third missing — the first confirmed American combat deaths since the war resumed, bringing the total US combat toll to 16; four other troops were medevac'd and later discharged. President Trump, calling the deaths "a very sad thing," ordered an eighth consecutive night of retaliatory strikes and was reportedly presented options to expand the campaign further, including possible strikes on civilian energy infrastructure. Iran responded by formally suspending all of its commitments under the Jun 17 MOU — Iranian official Ali Gharibabadi said Washington had violated its own commitments first, and the Supreme Leader dismissed Trump's signature on the deal as "worthless and unreliable," effectively voiding the 60-day toll-free window well ahead of its Aug 16 expiry. Brent crude jumped 4.5% to a session high of $88.02/bbl on the news, and observable strait traffic fell to its lowest level in three weeks, with 7 of the last 8 tracked vessels transiting via Iran's own designated route rather than the US-backed Omani corridor — a reversal of the pattern seen earlier in the war, when most ships hugged the Omani side despite Iranian warnings. The crisis entered its 140th day with the ceasefire framework in name only. On Jul 18-19, a US service member was killed in northern Iraq during a controlled detonation of an unexploded Iranian one-way attack drone, bringing the American combat toll to 17; President Trump ordered a 9th consecutive night of strikes, and Jordan's air defenses intercepted several more incoming Iranian missiles. Brent broke $90/bbl for the first time this war, closing at $90.32 on Jul 20 as Goldman Sachs said its $100 Brent scenario was "back in play." On Jul 20, the IRGC said four tankers attempted a dark "dangerous route" transit near the Musandam Peninsula in defiance of its shipping rules — two "had accidents and stopped," which Bloomberg linked to the products tanker Kavomaleas, tracked anchored and empty off Musandam after running with its transponder off — and observable strait traffic nearly halted entirely that Monday morning, the crisis's 141st day. Overnight into Jul 21, CENTCOM launched a 10th consecutive night of strikes after Iran hit Kuwaiti energy infrastructure for a third time this war — Kuwait Petroleum Corp said the strike caused injuries and "significant material losses" at one of its facilities, while Kuwait's defense ministry cited "severe damage" to oil and electricity sites. The IRGC separately claimed two more oil tankers, calling them "deviant" and "US-coerced," caught massive fires after taking an "unsafe" route through the strait; CENTCOM dismissed the claim as false, the latest instance of the two sides disputing basic facts about the waterway. Lloyd's List Intelligence recorded just 53 vessel transits in the week through Jul 20, down 66% from 157 the week before, with tanker and gas-carrier movements falling to 30 crossings from 90 — a level analysts described as a "worst-case scenario" for the strait. Brent eased 0.4% off its record close, slipping to $88.87/bbl, as Reuters reported mediators were floating a possible 10-day ceasefire proposal even as the traffic collapse kept a floor under prices, with the crisis entering its 142nd day. Overnight into Jul 22, CENTCOM completed an 11th consecutive night of strikes and the IRGC struck the Kuwaiti tanker Kaifan off Oman's Limah, its crew abandoning ship after an engine-room fire. The Houthis declared a formal blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb strait — Saudi Arabia's main workaround export route — in retaliation for Saudi strikes on Sanaa's airport, opening a second maritime chokepoint just as Brent set a fresh war-high above $91/bbl. At the ASEAN summit in Manila, Secretary of State Rubio said Iran's demand to control Hormuz traffic would set a "dangerous precedent" for other international waterways, framing the strait fight as a test case with global stakes as the crisis entered its 143rd day. Later on Jul 22, President Trump escalated again, vowing the US would "destroy ONE BRIDGE OR POWER PLANT" — including targets near Tehran — every time Iran fires on a ship transiting the strait; an Iranian military source told the Tasnim news agency that Tehran would retaliate against regional infrastructure and energy facilities tied to US interests if it did. CENTCOM carried out a 12th consecutive night of strikes, and the IRGC separately claimed an oil tanker caught fire after an explosion in the strait, a claim CENTCOM did not confirm. Brent broke $94/bbl that day as talks with Iran appeared to collapse. On Jul 23, the escalation reached a new single-day peak: three tankers were struck within 24 hours in the strait's southern corridor near Kumzar and Limah, Oman, including a state-owned vessel, and observed traffic swung almost entirely onto the northern, Iran-designated route — just 2 of the next 12 verified crossings used the southern lane. One of the struck tankers was later re-identified roughly 30km from where it was hit, moving under apparent armed escort toward Iranian waters, an assessment read as Iran actively enforcing which corridor tankers may use. The Houthis, separately, claimed missile-and-drone strikes on the Saudi-flagged tankers Encelia and Layla in the Red Sea — Saudi Arabia confirmed a fire at Encelia's bow — opening a third maritime front alongside Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Brent surged past $98/bbl on the combined news, up 4.6% to $98.44 (WTI +3.8% to $90.14), its highest since late May, while Secretary of State Rubio told reporters in Manila that Iran "wants to talk" but isn't serious about a deal, since "these people make deals and then they break it almost immediately." Brent then broke $100/bbl for the first time since May, closing Jul 23 at $100.65 (+7.0%) and holding near $100.40 into Jul 24 — up more than 13% on the week — as the Houthi Red Sea strikes compounded the Hormuz collapse; the game's default cargo price now reflects that close. Overnight into Jul 24, CENTCOM completed a 13th consecutive night of strikes, targeting command centers, drone storage, coastal surveillance and maritime capability, and said its blockade has now redirected 12 commercial vessels and disabled one since restarting Jul 15. Separately, Iran was reported to have rejected a US ceasefire proposal carried by Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi over control of the strait itself — though Baghdad's and Tehran's own offices disputed the report as "misleading." The crisis entered its 145th day with strikes, corridor enforcement and now a third front all still expanding. Later on Jul 24, explosive-laden drones swarmed Irbil, the northern Iraqi city hosting US forces — air defenses shot down five over the city as sirens also sounded in Bahrain, with no casualties reported — while an Omani delegation flew to Tehran to discuss managing strait traffic, and CENTCOM publicly rejected Iran's claim to control the waterway as "false." Brent eased 2.3% to $98.38/bbl on Jul 24, snapping its climb toward the $100.65 record set the day before but still up roughly 10% on the week. CENTCOM then went quiet for the Jul 25-26 weekend — no new strikes announced for the first time since the campaign began 13 nights earlier — with a Pentagon source telling reporters operations were "on a hold" as VP Vance and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine raised concerns about further escalation and dwindling munitions stockpiles in a White House meeting. Iran's IRGC separately claimed (disputed by US officials, who say all American aircraft are accounted for) to have destroyed 11 US aircraft and 17 drones on the ground since Jul 8, while Oman and Iran called their own Hormuz-management talks "useful" and reported progress on shared principles for safe passage — though Iran's foreign ministry says no change has occurred yet in actual transit conditions, leaving the closed-strait arsenal you'll face in the game unchanged for now. The pause held into a third day on Jul 27, and Brent cratered 8.2% to $90.28/bbl — its steepest single-day drop of the war — as CBS reported talks "moving in a positive direction" and CNBC described both sides pausing fighting to give negotiations "space." But Iran said Monday it is not seeking renewed talks with Washington and still insists it alone controls the strait, and TankerMap showed traffic still stuck at just 1-2 tanker crossings a day against the 88/day norm — so the price drop reflects trader optimism, not any confirmed reduction in risk on the water. Iran also opened a fourth front on Jul 27: Foreign Minister Araghchi warned Ukraine that a Saturday Caspian Sea strike, which killed one Iranian sailor, "cannot go unanswered," accusing Kyiv of acting at Israel's behest to drag the war northward. On Jul 28, the strike pause extended into a fourth day and Iran opened a parallel diplomatic track, hosting Hormuz-management calls with Saudi Arabia alongside its ongoing talks with Oman — reportedly seeking Riyadh and Muscat's buy-in for a shared framework to restart full shipping traffic through the strait. But officials on both sides caution the central shipping lane can only reopen once Iran's naval mines are cleared, and Tehran is still seeking Omani approval for a toll-based management scheme Oman continues to resist, so nothing about actual transit conditions has changed yet. Brent extended its slide to ~$86.58/bbl, a fourth consecutive losing session, as the pause and the talks fed hopes of an eventual deal. That pause ended late Jul 28: Iranian forces fired ballistic missiles at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan — the same base struck Jul 18 — in what CENTCOM called a surprise attack; Patriot batteries intercepted every missile and no Americans were killed, but the 4-day quiet was over. CENTCOM and Saudi Arabian forces retaliated with precision strikes on multiple Iran-aligned terrorist logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq, citing more than 30 IRGC-directed drone attacks in the preceding 72 hours. On Jul 29, the IRGC said it hit and stopped three more tankers that continued on the strait's "unsafe and illegal" southern route despite repeated warnings, reasserting the same enforcement logic behind the Jul 20 Musandam mine incidents and the Jul 23 triple tanker strike. Brent reversed its four-day slide within hours, jumping 3.86% to $87.34/bbl (WTI +3.95% to $83.08), while reports described war-risk insurers pricing hull cover at roughly 8x pre-crisis levels with six P&I clubs pulling out of the market entirely — the clearest sign yet that insurers, unlike traders during the pause, never stopped treating the strait as a war zone. Brent then closed Jul 29 at $90.74 (+7.9%) after Trump threatened to "hit Iran hard." The same day, US Treasury sanctioned Iran's Persian Gulf Marine Insurance Co. and Hormuz Safe Marine Services Authority — IRGC-linked outfits set up after the closure declaration to charge tankers for "coverage" against risks Iran itself created, with Hormuz Safe accepting bitcoin to dodge sanctions — and CENTCOM said its blockade has redirected 20 commercial vessels for evasion, up from 12 three days earlier. Yet on Jul 30, Oman handed Iran a Gulf-backed proposal for joint strait management with voluntary fees modeled on the Strait of Malacca (Tehran hasn't responded), and Bloomberg/Rigzone reported traffic quietly picking up — 14 vessels crossed Jul 29 per Kpler versus single digits the week before, a Qatari LNG carrier openly transited for the first time in three weeks, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright said roughly 6.5 million barrels a day still exited the Gulf via the strait over the past week — a reminder that sanctions, threats and a fragile reopening are all happening at once. Late Jul 29 into Jul 30, Iran formally rejected Oman's Malacca-style plan, with a senior Iranian official insisting the entire inbound lane and part of the outbound lane must stay under Iranian control and calling a 50-50 joint-management split contrary to Tehran's interests. Hours later CENTCOM completed a "heavy wave of strikes" against dozens of IRGC targets across southern Iran, ending a five-night pause since the Jul 25-26 quiet spell; the strike killed a family of three — a father, mother and their two-year-old son — in a residential building in Qeshm City, with two more children pulled from the rubble. The IRGC vowed to "punish the aggressor today," reasserted Iranian control over the strait, and warned that nations "aiding" the US would face a "harsh response" of their own, while President Trump separately pushed Congress to add Iran to a pending Russia sanctions bill, even though the US imports next to nothing from Iran. On Jul 31 the IRGC said it struck and disabled two more tankers attempting an "unauthorized route" it said the US military had misled them into, turning back four others, and UKMTO confirmed a separate vessel was hit by an unidentified projectile in the southern strait and abandoned to lifeboats — yet CBA estimated Hormuz crude flows have quietly recovered to roughly 30-35% of pre-war levels despite the renewed strikes, and Brent closed Jul 31 at $90.25/bbl (+1.37%, WTI $84.87 +1.54%), little changed on net from before the Qeshm strike. Also on Jul 31, Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi declared Iran's Iranian-waters counter-proposal to Oman "our definitive position," warning the strait stays closed if Muscat won't accept it, while Oman was reportedly weighing a three-lane compromise (an Iranian-waters lane, an international lane, and an Omani-waters lane) instead; Kpler data nonetheless showed two VLCCs still exiting the Gulf that day. Aug 1 brought a volatile weekend: Kuwait's armed forces intercepted an Iranian drone attack on a government facility in the north and civilian vehicles on Bubiyan Island, which the IRGC called retaliation for Thursday's US strikes, while two tankers were struck off Oman within hours of each other near Musandam's Lima Point — including the Qatari LNG carrier Gaslog Shanghai, dark since Jul 31, its engine room left disabled with no casualties reported. Then came the biggest whiplash of the war: Trump said he was canceling a planned attack on Iran after Gulf states and Israel requested a pause, citing "perimeters of a deal" that would bring the strait's "immediate, complete and total" reopening — only for a source close to Iran's nuclear negotiating team to tell Fars News hours later that no such agreement exists and the strait stays closed "as long as the hostile actions of the United States continue." Independent tracker straits.live verified the strait closed for a 154th straight day on Aug 2, with war-risk insurance still running roughly 8x pre-crisis levels. Axios → CNBC → CNN → Manila Times → Al Jazeera → Bloomberg → Political Wire → Axios (Jul 28) → Tasnim → CNBC (Jul 29) → US Treasury → Times of Israel → Bloomberg (Jul 30) → Democracy Now → CNBC (tariffs) → Tasnim (Jul 31) → CNBC (Jul 31) → Bloomberg (Kuwait, Aug 1) → Bloomberg (LNG tanker, Aug 1) → Axios (Aug 2) → Fars/Pravda (Aug 2) → On Aug 2-3, Trump set Monday talks with Iran while Tehran's Foreign Ministry said no US negotiations were actually scheduled — only an Oman-mediated "middle transit route" Araghchi called "nearing completion" — and Brent cratered 5.1% intraday on the mere prospect of a deal. On Aug 3-4, Trump branded Iran's leadership "unbelievably duplicitous" and called the Oman round Iran's "last chance," President Pezeshkian demanded Washington honor the Jun 17 MOU, and UKMTO logged a fresh attack ~20nm northeast of Al Khasab, Oman. Diplomacy then accelerated fast: Qatar said an interim Iran-Oman proposal was drafted under which inbound tankers would transit an Iran-controlled channel and outbound tankers an Oman-controlled channel, funded by a roughly $1M-per-ship "service fee" split evenly between Tehran and Muscat — though a US official insisted any such "temporary" route wouldn't involve Iranian permissions or tolls. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC a deal to reopen the strait could land "today or tomorrow," and Brent cratered 5.3% to a three-week-low $79.36 close on Aug 4, its first sub-$80 print since mid-July. But Reuters maritime sources confirmed that same day that the vessel UKMTO flagged near Al Khasab was a dry bulk ship whose crew abandoned it, with one seafarer still missing — no agreement has actually been signed and a tanker was just hit, so the game keeps treating the strait as closed. The National (Aug 4) → CNBC/Bessent (Aug 4) → Washington Post (Aug 4) → Rigzone (Aug 4) → Diplomacy then dragged through early-to-mid August without a signed deal — Iran and Oman circled a shipping-route framework while the sanctioned $2M wartime toll stayed the only "safe passage" on offer, and ADNOC-flagged tankers absorbed a steady drumbeat of drone and unknown-projectile strikes (17 hit since the war began by Aug 15). Trump escalated from pledging to eventually "declare" the strait US territory (Aug 14) to actually posting a map doing so (Aug 18). The Jun 17 MOU's 60-day toll-free window formally expired Aug 17 with no extension, Kpler logged traffic crashing to a three-month low (just 3 ships crossed Aug 16), and Iran's FM spokesman Baghaei said Tehran and Oman had agreed on the shipping-route map itself — though a joint implementation statement is still being finalized. On Aug 17, Trump threatened to bomb Oman if it "gets in the way" of reopening the strait and called on Iran to "put up the white flag of surrender." On Aug 18, UKMTO logged a fresh outbound vessel hit by an unknown projectile near Khasab, Oman — engine-room damage and a crew casualty, the worst single hit of the week — as Trump's territorial map post landed and Qatar said mediators are waiting on the Iran-Oman deal before resuming broader talks. No route deal is signed and no reopening is confirmed, so the game keeps treating the strait as closed. New as of Aug 19: Kpler ship-tracking data cited by Haaretz shows Iran has effectively lost operational control of its own chokepoint — over 80% of transits in the prior two weeks routed through Oman's UN-backed corridor rather than Iran's designated lane, leaving Tehran unable to collect the tolls it's demanded since the MOU lapsed. Bloomberg separately tracked two Chinese state-owned supertankers reversing course mid-transit rather than continue through the strait, and UANI's Aug 19 shipping update identified the previously-unnamed Aug 18 Khasab casualty as the vessel's chief engineer, who died of his injuries — the war's first confirmed fatality from a strike inside the strait itself. Bloomberg also tracked the tanker Amara making at least five erratic U-turns before coming to a dead stop near Iran's Qeshm Island on its way into the Gulf, a sign Tehran is still forcibly holding individual ships in place near its own coast even as the wider traffic pattern slips past it. No route deal is signed and Iran is still stopping ships by force near Qeshm, so the game keeps the strait's arsenal and toll mechanic exactly as they are. CBS News (Aug 17) → CGTN (Aug 17) → Arab News (Aug 18) → Al Jazeera (Aug 18) → Haaretz (Aug 19) → Bloomberg (Aug 19) → Bloomberg (Amara) → UANI (Aug 19) → Iran's IRGC confirmed Aug 20 what trackers had suspected for days: the tanker Amara wasn't merely being held near Qeshm, it had been formally seized — Tehran's first outright tanker seizure since June — with semi-official Fars News citing a transit-rule violation (no Iranian permit, no service fee paid) and state media saying the Liberia-flagged, UAE-linked vessel was redirected toward Bandar Abbas, even as other trackers still placed it holding off the Khasab approach in the North Hormuz corridor. The same day, US Treasury re-sanctioned Hezbollah as an Iran-run network, VP Vance called economic pressure Washington's "most effective tool" against Tehran, and Bessent teased a Monday announcement on "the toughest sanctions in history" — a parallel pressure track, not a strait mechanic. Lloyd's List/PortWatch logged just 73 transits for Aug 10-16, down from 91 the week before, and straits.live marked Day 173 of closure as of Aug 21. No route deal is signed and Iran just seized a tanker rather than releasing one, so the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait arsenal at full strength. Friday, Aug 21, Brent pulled back 0.3% to settle $93.40 (still a second straight weekly gain) as Bessent and Trump previewed Monday's "toughest sanctions in history" package targeting oil-smuggling networks, exchange houses, ship registries and front companies — but with nothing formally imposed yet and no fresh strike or seizure on the water, the game holds the closed-strait arsenal and insurance rate unchanged into the weekend. Middle East Eye (Aug 20) → Maritime Executive (Amara) → The Week → gCaptain (Bessent) → straits.live (Day 174) → Iran hardened its position over the weekend rather than soften it: SNSC secretary Rezaei declared the strait "closed, despite American claims" and said it "will not open until America corrects its behaviour," publishing a formal list of conditions — end the naval blockade, withdraw regional military assets, lift sanctions, unfreeze Iranian assets, compensate Iran for war damage — even as Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority granted transit permits to a batch of Iraqi tankers after Baghdad's repeated requests, with Rezaei warning that carve-out closes again too if any neighboring state joins Washington's sanctions campaign. On Aug 24 Iran's parliamentary national security committee approved Article 3 of a "Strategic Action Plan for Security and Development of the Strait of Hormuz," formally codifying Hormuz service fees — maritime, environmental, emergency fuel, insurance, safety — for ships from permitted countries, payable in rials or a Tehran-designated currency, pending a full floor vote. Hours later, ahead of Treasury Secretary Bessent's promised "economic D-Day" press conference on secondary sanctions targeting Iran's remaining oil buyers (China chief among them), the Persian Gulf Strait Authority escalated further still — blacklisting 45 tankers it says broke its transit rules and warning that any vessel transferring cargo with a blacklisted ship risks the same "fines, seizure, or confiscation." No route deal is signed and Iran is now threatening outright ship seizure rather than just tolls, so the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait arsenal at full strength. Al Jazeera (Aug 22) → IRNA (service fees, Aug 24) → CNBC (tanker blacklist, Aug 24) → CNN ("economic D-Day", Aug 23) → Overnight into Tuesday, Aug 25, an unidentified projectile struck the engine room of an unnamed tanker roughly nine nautical miles northeast of Ash Shishah, Oman, disabling it — UKMTO reported no casualties and did not disclose the vessel's flag, cargo, or attacker. Hours later Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, wrapped a one-day Tehran mission meeting President Pezeshkian, FM Araghchi, and chief negotiator Ghalibaf, with Islamabad claiming "significant progress" toward reopening the strait — but, echoing July's stalled Oman route-map talks, no signed deal or toll/ban terms followed. Bessent's sanctions package took formal effect the same day, and SNSC's Rezaei vowed to "neutralize" the economic pressure rather than negotiate under it. The new strike matches the engine-damage/no-casualties pattern already priced into the 15% ceiling and no route deal is on paper, so the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait arsenal at full strength; the default cargo price now tracks Monday's $92.06 Brent settle. TradeWinds (tanker hit, Aug 25) → Al Jazeera (Pakistan talks, Aug 25) → On Wednesday, Aug 26, Iran and Oman announced they'd agreed a temporary joint navigational corridor through the strait — inbound traffic routed entirely through Iranian waters, outbound through both Iranian and Omani waters — as a precursor to a permanent arrangement and a mine-clearing project. But Iran's deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi said immediately afterward that the strait "remains closed" until Washington honors the June ceasefire MOU, and no ships have actually moved on the new route yet. With no signed operational deal, no toll/ban terms set, and no ships transiting, the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait arsenal at full strength; the default cargo price now tracks that day's $85.85 Brent settle. Al Jazeera (Iran-Oman corridor, Aug 26) → Iran's IRGC-aligned hardliners followed up by saying Tehran and Oman have the corridor's terms agreed in principle but insisting the strait stays shut until Washington accepts Iran's conditions — casting the US, not Iran, as the holdout. Wednesday, Aug 26, Trump claimed the strait has been fully cleared of mines and is now a "functioning strait" with oil "pouring out" — a claim CENTCOM wouldn't corroborate, referring reporters to the White House instead. That claim met a fresh test Thursday, Aug 27: UKMTO reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile near Khasab, Oman, sparking a fire the crew extinguished with no casualties and no environmental damage. The same day, Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani flew to Tehran to press for freedom of navigation through the strait and a return to the pre-Feb 28 status quo. None of this is a signed deal or an eased threat picture, so the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait arsenal at full strength; the default cargo price now tracks Thursday's $86.93 Brent settle. CNBC (tanker strike tests demining claim, Aug 27) → Al-Monitor (Qatar PM to Tehran, Aug 27) → On Aug 28, CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper announces US forces have cleared the strait's internationally recognized shipping lanes of Iranian sea mines after a monthslong operation using Navy divers, SEALs, and multi-service air assets — the third such demining claim since Aug 10, and again disputed within hours: Iran's deputy FM Gharibabadi calls it market-calming "propaganda" and asks why, if true, "not a single vessel" is passing through. With no independent verification and no confirmed change in traffic, the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait arsenal at full strength; the default cargo price now tracks Friday's $88.22 Brent settle. Arab News (CENTCOM demining claim, Aug 28) → Aug 29 brings no fresh strike or signed reopening deal — Iran's FM Araghchi says renewed talks with Washington aren't "impossible" if US pressure eases, even as Tehran urges other states to reject the sanctions, and CENTCOM's Cooper backs the demining claim with a figure of ~1,500 transits and ~750M barrels facilitated since the war began, still hard to square with Kpler's count of just five ships crossing this past Tuesday. straitClosed holds true and the default cargo price still tracks Friday's $88.22 print — markets are closed for the weekend. CNBC (Araghchi remarks, Aug 28) → Aug 30 brings the first direct US military action against Iran in over a month: US forces strike two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island that were preparing to fire rockets dispersing sea mines into the strait — a sharp rebuttal to CENTCOM's own week-old "fully demined" claim, since Iran was actively trying to re-seed the strait with mines even after the claimed minesweep. CENTCOM separately says zero Iranian crude exports have been tracked breaking its blockade, and Iran vows retaliation. Earlier that Saturday-into-Sunday, Iran's deputy FM Gharibabadi had said the strait "remains closed" and that any vessel passing through does so only in coordination with Tehran, confirming the Aug 26 Iran-Oman corridor understanding stays unimplemented until Washington meets its commitments under the lapsed Islamabad MOU. The Larak strike is a real event on the water, but not a hit on a vessel inside the strait itself — same treatment as the Jul 15/Aug 18-19 base strikes — so straitClosed holds true, mine density holds at its existing wartime seeding, and the default cargo price still tracks Friday's $88.22 print pending Monday's open. Press TV (Gharibabadi remarks, Aug 29) → CNBC (Larak Island strike, Aug 30) → Iran makes good on its vow on Aug 31: the IRGC fires ballistic missiles at two US military airbases in Jordan, claiming "heavy damage," and separately hits US military assets in the UAE — the first active exchange between Washington and Tehran since late July. Jordan's army says it intercepted eight missiles without confirming their origin. President Pezeshkian says Iran is "not looking for war" but "will never sit still in the face of any aggression." It's the sharpest confirmed military escalation since the Jul 29 Jordan-base exchange, but — like that strike and the Jul 15/Aug 18-19 base attacks before it — it's a hit on military targets, not a new tanker loss inside the strait, so the game holds the closed-strait insurance rate at its 15% ceiling and keeps straitClosed true. Brent opens the week up 2.93% to a $90.69 settle; the default cargo price now tracks that print. Euronews (Iran retaliates, Aug 31) → Al Jazeera (Jordan/UAE attacks, Aug 31) → Updated Sep 1: two supertankers — the Saudi-flagged VLCC Sidr and the Liberian-flagged Senegal Prosperity, both hauling 2M barrels of Saudi crude and both running AIS-dark — are struck by unknown projectiles in quick succession near Khasab; separately Iran's IRGC claims a supertanker hit two mines and caught fire, and that it shot down a US MQ-9 drone, but CENTCOM flatly denies the mine claim as "disinformation" and the drone claim is unconfirmed. No casualties, no independently confirmed mine strike, so the closed-strait insurance rate holds at its 15% ceiling and mine density holds unchanged. Trump vows to hit Iran "hard" while Tehran urges a return to the lapsed June 17 MOU; Brent climbs to a $91.28 settle. Bloomberg (tankers struck, Sep 1) → CNBC (Trump vows to hit Iran hard, Sep 1) → Tuesday, Sep 1 into Wednesday, Sep 2, brings the war's sharpest escalation since it began: CENTCOM completes a second wave of strikes on Iran in three days — air-defense sites, radar, naval assets, mine-laying capabilities, and communications sites along the southern coast — which Trump calls "large and powerful" retaliation for the failed Larak mine-laying bid and Sunday's Jordan missile attack. Iranian officials say one strike hit a home hosting a wedding in the coastal town of Kuhestak, killing five (including a child) and wounding at least 68, a claim Washington hasn't addressed. Iran answers with its broadest retaliation yet — IRGC missiles and drones hitting US-linked bases in Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, and Kuwait, double the two countries hit Aug 31 — with Jordan intercepting roughly ten ballistic missiles and Bahrain intercepting drones. Like every base-for-base exchange since Jul 15, none of it is a new tanker loss or mine strike inside the strait itself, so the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait insurance rate at its 15% ceiling; the default cargo price now tracks Wednesday's $94.86 Brent print, its highest since late July. Bloomberg (Iran's four-country retaliation, Sep 2) → NBC News (Trump: large and powerful strikes, Sep 1-2) → Updated Sep 3: Axios reports the Tuesday strike package included a new "tanker for tanker" policy Trump approved and deployed for the first time — US drones fired missiles into the engine rooms of two Iranian GOVERNMENT tankers anchored north of the blockade line, retaliation-in-kind rather than blockade enforcement, alongside roughly 100 IRGC-linked targets struck in total. A US official calls it "mowing the lawn" and claims it "bought at least a month" of reduced threat to commercial ships — unconfirmed by any traffic or mine data yet, so nothing eases in-game on the strength of it alone. The Washington Post separately puts Iran's overnight retaliation at 59+ missiles and drones, spread across Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Erbil, Iraq. None of it is a hit on commercial shipping inside the strait itself — Iran's own tankers and military bases took the new hits — so the game keeps straitClosed true and the closed-strait insurance rate at its 15% ceiling; straits.live logs Day 186 of closure. Axios (tanker for tanker, Sep 2-3) → Washington Post (Iran's 59+ missile/drone barrage, Sep 2) → Updated Sep 4: Brent's Thursday settle eased to $95.52 (WTI $91.30, CNBC) as markets found no fresh hit on commercial shipping inside the strait to price in; straits.live's Day 187 tally still shows transit pinned near record lows (~4 ships/day, ~6% of the ~74/day pre-war baseline), war-risk insurance near 40x normal, and 4 of the 9 largest container lines still off the route. AP's retrospective finds six-plus months of Operation Economic Outcast sanctions stacked on the on-and-off bombing campaign still hasn't moved Tehran, even as US diesel separately hit a record $5.85/gallon national average. None of it is a new strike inside the strait, so straitClosed stays true. NPR (diesel record, Sep 4) → AP (Trump's dual-track strategy, Sep 3) → Updated Sep 5: a quiet Saturday closes out the week — no fresh hit on commercial shipping inside the strait itself since Wednesday's Kuwait retaliation salvo. Brent's Friday settle eased further to $95.23 (WTI $91.20, Trading Economics), a touch below Thursday's $95.52; markets are closed over the weekend so no fresh print follows. Two threads catch the game up on developments from earlier in the week: Bahri confirmed two Filipino seafarers died aboard the VLCC Sidr in the Aug 31 Khasab-area strike — correcting the "no casualties" reported when that strike first entered the game — and Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority added 11 more vessels to its Hormuz blacklist Sep 2, bringing the total to 56, up from the 45 logged Aug 24. Neither is a new strike inside the strait today, and the Sidr toll matches the same lethality already priced into the 15% insurance ceiling, so straitClosed stays true and the ceiling holds; straits.live logs Day 188 of closure. The National (Sidr fatalities, Sep 2) → Business Standard (blacklist to 56, Sep 2) → Updated Sep 6: the war's sharpest single-day escalation since Aug 31 — Iran's IRGC fired ballistic missiles at a US aircraft carrier and destroyer for the first time this war, claiming hits that forced both to withdraw; the Pentagon says both evaded every shot, undamaged. CENTCOM hit back by permanently disabling two idle Iranian tankers (Downy, Stark 1) and destroying a third (Kylo) — Adm. Brad Cooper says shoot at two of our ships and we take out three of yours. The IRGC claims further strikes on three more tankers on an "unauthorized route" plus three "US-linked" vessels, and says it hit a US unmanned naval vessel trying to enter the strait — none of the three claims independently confirmed. No confirmed new loss on neutral shipping and no reported casualties, so straitClosed stays true and the 15% ceiling holds; markets are still shut for the weekend so the default cargo price holds at Friday's $95.23 settle. straits.live logs Day 189 of closure. CNN (carrier/tanker strikes, Sep 5) → Al Jazeera (Hormuz tanker war live, Sep 6) → Updated Sep 7: Iran's national security council secretary Mohsen Rezaei reasserts the strait is "completely closed" under Iran's armed forces and announces a new "restricted zone" starting at the US Navy blockade line and reaching into the Gulf — any vessel entering gets added to Iran's Hormuz blacklist, effective in the coming days; it isn't in force yet so nothing changes in-game on the announcement alone. Iran separately says a temporary safe-route deal with Oman, including a mine-clearing project, is "days away" and headed to the IMO, but ties full reopening to the US honoring the lapsed June MOU — still a claim, not a confirmed reopening. Brent trades as high as $97.93 before easing to $96.15, so the default cargo price updates to that level. straitClosed stays true and the 15% ceiling holds. straits.live logs Day 190 of closure. Bloomberg (Oman deal "days away", Sep 7) → The National (restricted zone, Sep 7) → Updated Sep 8: Monday's firm Brent settle lands at $97.31 — above the $96.15 intraday figure already in the game — and Tuesday extends the climb further, to a seven-week high of $99/bbl, as the Hormuz stalemate enters its sixth month with traffic still pinned near record lows. Diplomacy opens a new front: Qatar's PM Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani holds emergency talks in Beijing with China's FM Wang Yi, aiming to enlist Beijing's economic weight behind freedom of navigation through the strait — the first time China has joined the mediation push directly. Separately, Tehran says its Oman-mediated shipping-route talks are moving "smoothly and constructively," with a draft corridor map agreed in principle, though technical details are still being finalized — still a claim, not a signed reopening. Iran's Monday-announced "restricted zone" beyond the blockade line remains just that: an announcement, not yet in force. None of it is a new strike inside the strait itself, so straitClosed stays true and the 15% ceiling holds; only the default cargo price updates, to $99. straits.live logs Day 191 of closure. CBS News (oil nears $100, Sep 8) → TRT World (Qatar-China talks, Sep 8) → CBS News (Oman talks, Sep 8) →